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LU9DCE > ALERT 25.12.19 07:04z 116 Lines 5880 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5841_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 25 12
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 191225/0700Z 5841@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806
PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur tonight across
parts of the Southwest. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move eastward across
the eastern U.S. tonight as a shortwave trough moves northeastward
into the Four Corners region. A few thunderstorms will be possible
near the trough from south-central Arizona into southwest New
Mexico mainly due to mid-level moisture and strong large-scale
ascent. Instability will be insufficient for severe storms tonight
across the CONUS.
..Broyles.. 12/25/2019
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122
PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms will be possible today
along and near the coast of central/southern California. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough will remain across
the West Coast today. This feature is expected to deepen during
the period with a closed upper-low developing by early Thursday
morning. Coincident with closed low, a surface cyclone is expected
to deepen west of the central/southern California coast.
Isolated thunderstorm activity will be possible both offshore and
within a limited area of coastal central/southern California. An
initial round of activity is expected during the morning and early
afternoon, primarily from the Bay Area to near Point Conception. For
Wednesday evening into Thursday, a more potent shortwave will slide
southeastward bringing additional isolated thunderstorms to points
farther southward in southern California.
..Wendt.. 12/25/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245
AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Thursday across
parts of southern California, the Southwest, and the southern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low near the coast
of southern CA Thursday morning will move slowly east-southeastward
across northern Mexico and the Southwest through the period. A band
of showers with perhaps some embedded lightning should be ongoing
along/near the southern CA Coast at the start of the period in
association with a focused southwesterly mid-level jet. Even though
instability is forecast to remain meager, there will be strong
large-scale ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures overspreading
this region Thursday morning, with a few instances of lightning
possible. As the upper low and mid-level jet both migrate inland,
isolated thunderstorms may also occur over a small portion of the
lower CO River Valley.
Low-level moisture return will gradually occur across the southern
High Plains through the period. A southerly low-level jet should
modestly strengthen late Thursday night into early Friday morning
across portions of west TX. There is still uncertainty regarding the
quality and northward extent of this low-level moisture return. It
is also somewhat unclear whether low-level warm advection will
be sufficient to initiate elevated thunderstorms above the stable
boundary layer. Regardless, there appears to be enough of a signal
for convective precipitation late in the period across parts of
the southern High Plains to maintain a general thunderstorm area.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 12/25/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing will persist across the
West. A shortwave trough will eject northeastward into the central
Plains. Development of a lee cyclone is expected near the KS/CO
border. This feature will quickly move northeastward during late
afternoon into the evening. Breezy conditions are possible in SE CO,
SW KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles; however, RH is not likely to drop
below 20% across the region, keeping fire weather concerns very low.
..Wendt.. 12/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A low-latitude, upper-level trough will move into
the lower Colorado River Valley on D2/Thursday. The surface will
generally feature high pressure across much of the northern/central
portions of the CONUS. Areas with remaining dry fuels are not
expected to experience fire weather concerns with light winds and
relatively moist conditions in place.
..Wendt.. 12/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Too much is not enough.
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