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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.12.19 08:30z 114 Lines 5797 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5899_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 12
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<
LU9DCE
Sent: 191226/0701Z 5899@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Wed Dec 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Southwest.
...Synopsis... An upper low will move across southern CA today, and
will reach the lower CO River Valley by 12Z Friday. Lift associated
with this feature will result in widespread precipitation. Due to
cooling temperatures aloft and pockets of heating, very small values
of MUCAPE may develop, supporting isolated, weak thunderstorms
mainly late in the day over southern AZ. Despite strengthening
shear in this region, severe storms are not expected.
Elsewhere, mild conditions will exist across the Southeast near a
surface ridge and beneath rising heights aloft, with 70 F dewpoints
from the FL Straits to the central Gulf of Mexico.
..Jewell/Elliott.. 12/26/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
Friday across parts of the Southwest, southern/central Plains, and
the southern Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low initially over
northwestern Mexico and parts of the Southwest should phase with
a northern-stream shortwave trough Friday, resulting in a highly
amplified upper trough extending from western Canada southward
across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A strong southwesterly
mid-level jet will overspread the southern/central Plains through
the period. At the surface, a low should form across the southern
High Plains by Friday evening, subsequently deepening as it develops
northeastward to the vicinity of western KS by early Saturday.
Low-level clouds should remain over much of the southern High
Plains through the day, with limited diurnal heating evident in
model guidance. This will likely limit substantial destabilization
across this region, even as mid-level temperatures cool with the
approach of the upper trough. Surface dewpoints are also expected
to reach no higher than the low to perhaps mid 50s as a partially
modified airmass emanating from the Gulf of Mexico makes its way
northwestward.
Thunderstorms should form along a cold front by Friday evening
across parts of west TX as it surges eastward, and they will
likely continue through early Saturday morning across parts of the
southern/central Plains as strong low-level warm advection occurs.
Effective bulk shear is forecast to be rather strong across these
regions, around 40-50 kt, as the mid-level jet ejects eastward as
well. Regardless, forecast soundings across the southern Plains show
limited low-level moisture and very little diurnal heating. These
factors should temper instability, with no more than 250-500 J/kg
of MUCAPE indicated. Accordingly, the likelihood of persistent,
organized severe storms still appears too low to include any severe
probabilities.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 12/26/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore
across southern California today and over portions of the lower
Colorado River Valley through tonight. Meanwhile, a large area of
surface high pressure will build southeastward across portions
of the northern/central Plains and the upper/middle Mississippi
River Valley.
Large scale fire weather conditions are not expected today due to
relatively weak winds in areas with lowered RH values and receptive
fuels.
..Elliott.. 12/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward from portions of the lower Colorado River Valley to
the central/southern Rockies Day 2/Friday. At the surface, high
pressure will move from the upper/middle Mississippi River Valley
to the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, an upstream surface low
is forecast to gradually move northeastward over portions of the
central/southern Rockies.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions may briefly develop over
portions of the Trans-Pecos region in Texas during the afternoon Day
2/Friday. While breezy southwesterly winds are expected, the current
25-30%) coupled with the brief/spotty nature of the threat precludes
the introduction of an Elevated fire weather area.
..Elliott.. 12/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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I hear the sound that the machines make, and feel my heart break, just for
a moment.
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