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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:11z 108 Lines 5856 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15415_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 30 12
Path: HB9ON<HB9ON<HB9ON<HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<LU4ECL<LU1HVK<
LU9DCE
Sent: 181230/0711Z 15415@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 1213 AM CST Sun Dec 30 2018
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED AGAIN FOR THUNDER ERROR ON NDFD GRID
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today into
tonight in parts of the southern Plains and Southeast. No severe
weather is expected.
...Discussion... West to southwest anticyclonic mid-level flow will
be present today from the southern Plains into the Southeast. At
the surface, a moist air mass will in place across much of the Gulf
of Mexico extending northward into the central and eastern Gulf
Coastal areas. Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible
today on the northern edge of the moist air mass in parts of the
Southeast. An upper-level trough will move into western areas of the
southern Plains tonight. In response, a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet
will strengthen along the Texas Coastal Plain and move northeastward
into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development
may take place near the low-level jet tonight. Instability is
forecast to remain relatively weak from the southern Plains into
the Southeast which will limit any severe potential.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 12/30/2018
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215
AM CST Sun Dec 30 2018
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...
...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms with damaging wind the
main risk are possible over a portion of the lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valley regions on Monday.
...Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley regions...
A cyclone will evolve over the lower to mid MS Valley region early
Monday in response to forcing accompanying a northeast-ejecting but
deamplifying shortwave trough. Trailing cold front should extend
from the weak low in AR, southwest through eastern TX at the start
of the period, before continuing into the southeast U.S. as the
cyclone develops northeastward through the OH Valley and lower
Great Lakes. A corridor of modifying Gulf air with mid 60s F
dewpoints should advect northward through pre-frontal warm sector
along an intense (60-70 kt) southerly low level jet. This process
will contribute to some destabilization, but CAPE will remain very
marginal (generally near or below 500 J/kg) owing to widespread
clouds and weak lapse rates. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
be ongoing along the warm conveyor belt from eastern TX/LA into AR,
and some intensification or redevelopment might occur during the day
as the cold front continues east and interacts with the moistening
boundary layer. Current indications are that by late morning or
early afternoon, a strongly forced, narrow band of low-topped
convection will organize along the front within a high shear/low
CAPE environment. Bowing segments with damaging wind appear to be
the primary threat. Activity should weaken during the evening as the
stronger forcing shifts northeast away from the more unstable portion
of the warm sector. Given the limiting factors imposed by an expected
marginal thermodynamic environment will maintain the marginal risk
this update, but a slight risk might be needed in later outlooks.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 12/30/2018
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CST Sat Dec 29 2018
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis... The day will be characterized by large scale
upper-level cyclonic flow across the western and central CONUS,
with some ridging occurring closer to the East Coast. At the
surface, the central and eastern CONUS will be under low-pressure,
with cyclogenesis commencing across the lower-Mississippi Valley
towards the end of the period, with accumulating precipitation
expected across the south-central portions of the U.S. From the
central Plains northwestward, a surge of high pressure will follow
a progressive cold front, bringing about blustery, cool conditions.
...Southern California... As low pressure develops across portions
of southeast California during the afternoon, northwesterly
surface flow will become prevalent across southern portions of the
state. During the afternoon hours, downslope flow along the lee of
the Santa Ynez and Tehachapi Mountains will promote sustained surface
winds of up to 15-20 mph, with higher gusts possible. Though surface
RH is expected to drop just below 20% (amidst marginally dry fuels),
the aforementioned strong winds may promote some threat for fire
spread, with an elevated risk delineated for this area.
..Squitieri.. 12/30/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Comer sin trabajar, no se debe tolerar.
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