| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:23z 76 Lines 3831 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17082_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 22 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190122/0700Z 17082@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134
PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunder potential is less than 10% across the United
States today.
...Discussion...
Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough will eject across the southern
High Plains early in the period as 100kt+ 500mb speed max translates
across northwest TX into central IL by 23/12z. This feature is
expected to induce a weak surface low along a pronounced cold front
over OK which will track northeast toward the Chicago area by the
end of the period. While strong 12hr mid-level height falls will
spread across the mid MS Valley region, forecast soundings do not
exhibit appreciable instability ahead of the trough as lapse rates
should be on the order of 6 C/km through the potential convective
layer. Model guidance does suggest elevated buoyancy may be just
enough for weak convection between 1-6km but EL temperatures are
somewhat marginal for more than just a few lightning strikes with
the strongest convection. For these reasons thunderstorm potential
appears to be less than 10%.
Farther south near the TX coast, large-scale forcing for ascent
will be much weaker and frontal ascent/instability appear inadequate
for any meaningful threat for thunderstorms.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 01/22/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149
PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across parts
of the Southeast, with a few strong storms possibly affecting the
Florida Panhandle late Wednesday.
...Synopsis... Gradual height falls will occur over the southeastern
states on Wednesday as a positive-tilt upper trough moves eastward
out of the Southern Plains. A primary surface low will shift
northeast across the Great Lakes, with a secondary low moving
from the northern Gulf Of Mexico across AL and GA and into the
Carolinas. A cold front will move across LA, MS and AL during the
day, and across the FL Panhandle and GA overnight. Southerly winds
will allow for a return of low 60s F dewpoints, with dewpoints
near 65 F across the FL Panhandle. This will support at least a few
strong storms, with isolated severe storms not out of the question
Wednesday night.
...FL Panhandle... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are
likely across the northern Gulf Coast region during the day in
a warm advection regime. By evening, lift along the cold front
will become more intense, and advection will allow for further
destabilization. With time, dewpoints near 65 F should move inland
across much of the FL Panhandle, which when combined with very
strong wind profiles may support isolated severe storms capable of
wind damage. Any tornado threat will be conditional on how well the
boundary layer destabilizes ahead of the cold front Wednesday night.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: <5% - None
..Jewell.. 01/22/2019
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
