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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.01.20 07:05z 296 Lines 14478 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 01
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WW 20 SEVERE TSTM NC VA 120425Z - 121000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM EST Sat
Jan 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina
Southeast Virginia
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1125 PM
until 500 AM EST.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A broken line of fast-moving storms will continue to race
east-northeastward into the overnight and pose mainly a damaging
wind threat.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Goldsboro NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...WW 18...WW 19...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 23045.
...Guyer
WW 19 SEVERE TSTM NC SC 120235Z - 120700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM EST Sat Jan
11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina
Central and Northern South Carolina
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 935 PM
until 200 AM EST.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Fast-moving storms will continue to cross the Piedmont
of South Carolina and North Carolina late this evening into the
overnight. Damaging winds will be the primary concern within a
weakly unstable environment.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Raleigh
NC to 25 miles west southwest of Orangeburg SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 17...WW 18...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion
vector 23045.
...Guyer
WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
..NAUSLAR..01/12/20
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC015-029-041-065-073-079-083-091-101-117-127-131-139-143-147-
163-185-191-195-120640-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN EDGECOMBE
GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD
JOHNSTON MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON
WARREN WAYNE WILSON
VAC007-025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-075-081-085-087-093-095-
097-101-109-111-117-127-135-145-147-149-175-181-183-550-570-595-
620-670-730-760-800-830-120640-
VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AMELIA BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY
CHESTERFIELD CUMBERLAND
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S OGB TO
15 NE SOP TO 20 WSW AVC.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
..NAUSLAR..01/12/20
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC051-069-077-085-093-155-165-181-183-120640-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN GRANVILLE HARNETT
HOKE ROBESON SCOTLAND VANCE
WAKE
SCC009-027-031-033-041-120640-
SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAMBERG CLARENDON DARLINGTON DILLON
FLORENCE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAN TO
5 WSW CHO.
WW 18 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 120600Z.
..NAUSLAR..01/12/20
ATTN...WFO...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 18
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC011-029-037-083-120600-
VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPOMATTOX BUCKINGHAM CHARLOTTE HALIFAX
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW VDI TO
40 NNE VDI.
..LEITMAN..01/12/20
ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC033-209-279-120440-
GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURKE MONTGOMERY TOOMBS
NCC025-059-159-179-120440-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CABARRUS DAVIE ROWAN UNION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...20... FOR COASTAL
NC...NORTHEAST COASTAL SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0050 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020
Areas affected...Coastal NC...Northeast Coastal SC
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19...20...
Valid 120649Z - 120815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19,
20 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across coastal
NC and northeast portions of coastal SC. A brief tornado or two
also remains possible. Downstream watch issuance is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...VAD wind profiles from both LTX and MHX continue to
show very strong low-level flow (i.e. 55-60 kts at 1-2 kft), which
is supporting large low-level hodographs and very strong low-level
shear. Modest instability also exists across much of the region,
supported by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This strongly sheared
and modestly buoyant air mass is expected to remain in place as
the broken convective line continues eastward/southeastward into
the region.
A gradual weakening has been noted over the majority of the
convective line over the past hour or so. However, more recent
trends have shown localized updraft strengthening across central
portions of coastal NC. This general trend for localized but
brief storm intensification is expected to continue. As such,
cells within the line may occasionally/briefly intensify enough to
produce damaging downburst winds. Given the strong low-level shear,
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. However, the overall severe
threat will continue to gradually diminish as the storms struggle
with updraft strength and remain primarily outflow-dominant. Limited
severe potential will preclude downstream watch issuance.
..Mosier/Grams.. 01/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 35047848 36107656 35887572 34697684 33887819 33577914
34147943 35047848
MD 0047 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
Areas affected...central/southern Lower Michigan
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 120125Z - 120730Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue/develop across
southern and central Lower Michigan tonight. Snow may mix in as
well at times.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is lifting northeast
across the Midwest and Great Lakes with a surface front south of
the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. The surface freezing line is
oriented southwest-northeast across southern Lower Michigan with a
warm nose still evident between 850-700 mb in 0000 UTC DTX and ILX
soundings. Much of the lifting is occurring above 700 mb (below 0C)
with light freezing rain/drizzle resulting across a relatively narrow
corridor across Lower Michigan. Sleet and snow will also be possible
as the warm nose erodes tonight/overnight and surface temperatures
continue to fall. Precipitation rates will likely increase in
the coming hours as stronger forcing for ascent arrives leading
to accumulating ice, sleet, and snow. Precipitation will likely
continue through 0700 UTC and decreasing from southwest to northeast.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 01/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42628340 42318395 41918549 41908633 42268651 42758653
43118600 43638420 43888339 43898282 43458249 43168246 42928266
42628340
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138
PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY... Gusty winds may be noted with thunderstorms early
across portions of the Middle Atlantic.
...Middle Atlantic/New England...
Strong short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into western
NY by the start of the day1 period, progressing into ME by 18z. In
response to this feature, surface low will migrate into the Hudson
Valley by daybreak with a strong front expected to trail southwest
across VA into the southern Appalachians. Modified warm sector
has advanced inland across the northern Middle Atlantic/southern
New England late this evening as a warm front currently stretches
across NH/VT into upstate NY. While low-level moisture has increased
markedly across this region, forecast profiles are not particularly
buoyant, but early-day instability should prove adequate for at
least a threat of isolated elevated thunderstorms. There is some
concern that shallow frontal convection may produce gusty winds,
but this activity should not be deep enough to produce lightning.
Farther south across the southern Delmarva into northeast NC,
forecast soundings exhibit more instability. Surface-based parcels
will likely be buoyant ahead of the front and scattered convection
should trail along the boundary, arcing from near the NJ Coast
- southeast VA - northeast NC at the start of the period. This
activity should advance quickly offshore as New England short wave
ejects east. Very strong deep-layer shear will prove supportive of
organized convection and locally damaging winds are possible with
this activity for the first few hours of the period. In addition
to potentially damaging winds, a tornado can not be ruled out.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/12/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247
AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal hail threat
may occur Monday night from parts of the Arklatex northeastward
into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
...Arklatex/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward from the Four
Corners region to the Great Plains on Monday. In response to the
upstream trough, a 50 to 70 kt low-level jet should develop across
the southern and central Plains on Monday. This feature will move
eastward into the Ozarks aiding moisture advection across the
region. Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the northern edge
of low-level moisture across Louisiana and Mississippi during the
afternoon with additional storm development taking place further
north during the evening and overnight period from southeast
Arkansas east-northeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Forecast
soundings Monday night on the northern edge of the moist airmass
show MUCAPE in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range with effective shear of
30 to 40 kt. This may be enough for a marginal hail threat with
the stronger cells mainly from far northeast Texas into southwest
Tennessee after midnight.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 01/12/2020
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No matter how great your triumphs or how tragic your defeats --
approximately one billion Chinese couldn't care less.
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