| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 13.01.20 07:06z 77 Lines 4119 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7317_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 01
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<GB7COW<GB7YEW<VA7RBP<VE7MOV<LU9DCE
Sent: 200113/0700Z 7317@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134
PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY... Some hail threat will be noted with thunderstorms
that develop across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley Monday night.
...Lower MS Valley/TN Valley...
A large-scale upper high is expected to remain anchored off the
southeastern US during the day1 period while the primary band of
westerlies extends from northern CA into the OH Valley. This flow
regime is expected to encourage a plume of higher-PW (1.5+") air to
advect around the western periphery of the ridge across the lower
MS Valley into TN by the latter half of the period. While negligible
height changes are forecast across this region, it appears the ridge
may flatten some across the TN Valley as a possible weak disturbance
within the southern branch ejects across TX into the Mid-South
during the overnight hours. As moisture advects into this region,
forecast soundings suggest more than ample buoyancy will evolve such
that parcels lifted from near 850mb will yield MUCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg. In addition, cloud-bearing shear will be quite strong,
more than adequate for sustained rotating updrafts. While it's
not clear how many supercells will ultimately evolve within this
corridor, there is some concern that organized elevated convection
could materialize. Steep mid-level lapse rates support hail and 5%
severe probs will be added to account for this threat, primarily
during the latter half of the period.
..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/13/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Tuesday
across parts of the central Gulf Coast States, Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachian Mountains. Some of these storms could have a
marginal hail threat.
...Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee Valley/Southern
Appalachians... An upper-level trough will move quickly
east-northeastward across the Great Lakes on Tuesday as west to
southwest mid-level flow remains firmly established in much of the
central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in
place across the Gulf Coast region and Carolinas. Weak instability is
forecast to develop along the northern edge of the moist airmass from
central Louisiana to northern Georgia where scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible Tuesday afternoon. MUCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg along this corridor along with effective shear of
30-40 kt should be enough for a marginal hail threat. A few strong
wind gusts may also occur in central Mississippi and north-central
Alabama where the models show potential for surface-based
thunderstorms. A marginal severe threat could persist into the
early evening before instability diminishes across the threat area.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 01/13/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
A conclusion is simply the place where someone got tired of thinking.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Organizacion Radio Packet Argentina https://vk.com/ax25packet
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
