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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:23z 83 Lines 4133 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 01
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected across the southern
Florida Peninsula and the Keys as well as Deep South Texas today
and tonight.
...South Florida...
Within a broad cyclonic upper flow regime, isentropic ascent will
persist across southern FL north of quasi-stationary front. Weak
instability in the 800-400 mb layer associated with low-level theta-e
advection beneath 6-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will promote a
few thunderstorms embedded within a general area of showers.
...South Texas...
Mid-level (700-500 mb) lapse rates will steepen with the approach of
a shortwave trough now moving into northwest Mexico. Despite onshore
easterly surface winds, low-level positive theta-e advection will
remain limited due to trajectories from a large area of continental
polar high pressure over the eastern states. However, at least weak
(200-400 J/kg MUCAPE) will develop as mid-level lapse rates steepen
within the zone of increasing deep-layer ascent downstream from
the progressive shortwave trough. These processes will support the
development of showers and embedded thunderstorms over south TX
later this afternoon into tonight.
..Dial.. 01/26/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134
PM CST Fri Jan 25 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
the southern Florida Peninsula.
...South FL...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over southern AZ/northwest Mexico and this feature is
forecast to dig southeast toward the western Gulf basin by the
start of the day2 period. In response to this short wave, a surface
low is expected to develop along a synoptic front draped across
the southern Gulf. The low should track east-northeast along the
boundary toward the FL Straits Sunday afternoon before intensifying
a bit downstream off the southeast FL coast Monday morning. There
is increasing concern that a modified Gulf air mass will advance
inland ahead of the surface low across the southern FL Peninsula. If
the boundary does lift north in line with latest NAM guidance then
SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg could evolve from the Keys toward the
Miami area. Shear profiles will strengthen considerably ahead of
the short wave and forecast soundings strongly favor the potential
for organized rotating updrafts. Will introduce 5% severe probs for
wind/hail and at least a low threat for tornadoes with supercells;
however, if subsequent model guidance continues to support an air
mass recovery over south FL there may be a need to further increase
severe probs given the forecast shear and large-scale support ahead
of the trough.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 01/26/2019
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