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LU9DCE > ALERT 23.01.20 07:03z 105 Lines 5303 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7760_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200123/0701Z 7760@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156
PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States today.
...Gulf States...
500mb speed max is forecast to dig southeast across the Arklatex and
intensify in excess of 100kt during the overnight hours as central
Plains short-wave trough deepens and progresses into southeast MO.
In response to this feature, weak surface wave is developing along
the TX Coast which will move east-northeast along the central
Gulf Coast during the daylight hours before approaching the FL Big
Bend region by sunrise Friday morning. This scenario will prevent
substantial moistening inland as a coastal warm front should
struggle to advance more than a few miles inland. As a result,
buoyancy that develops across this region will lead to primarily
elevated convection, especially north of the coastal boundary. Even
so, there is some risk for near-surface based thunderstorms along
the immediate coast. If so, there is some risk for gusty winds
where surface dew points are able to rise above 60F. At this time
it appears the greatest risk for robust, organized convection will
remain offshore. For these reasons, severe probabilities will not
be introduced at this time.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/23/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across
the southern and middle Atlantic coastal states Friday.
...Discussion... While an upper short-wave trough shifts across
the western U.S. Friday, a much more prominent trough/upper low
will affect eastern portions of the country. This low, initially
expected to lie over the southeastern Missouri vicinity, will
progress slowly northeastward with time across the Mid South and
Ohio Valley, reaching the Indiana/western Ohio area late.
At the surface, occluding low pressure will likewise shift across
the Ohio Valley region, as a trailing trough/weak cold front moves
across the Southeast and eventually off the Atlantic Coast overnight.
As this occurs, secondary triple-point cyclogenesis is expected,
with this low progged to lie in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay
by period's end.
Ahead of the surface trough/front, a very weakly unstable airmass is
expected atop a likely-to-remain-stable boundary layer. Even near
the coast, theta-e is expected to remain insufficient to permit true
uninhibited surface-based parcels. As such, showers and embedded
thunderstorms should remain weak, and slightly elevated through the
period -- and thus little if any severe-weather risk is apparent
at this time.
Elsewhere, aside from a few stray flashes in the West, in conjunction
with the progressing upper short-wave trough, thunderstorms are
not expected across the CONUS.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/23/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Overall, precipitation and cool/cold temperatures
will greatly reduce fire weather concerns across the CONS
today. Areas of the southern Plains will likely stay dry with
the passage of a cold front. While some modestly dry and breezy
conditions will likely develop in the wake of the front, RH will
not fall below critically dry levels.
..Wendt.. 01/23/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will slowly move into the
upper Midwest on D2/Friday. Widespread precipitation is expected
to occur over the next two days in areas east of the Missouri
River. A shortwave trough will approach the central/southern High
Plains. In response, a weak lee trough will develop and induce
southerly surface flow in the region. However, light winds and RH
above critical thresholds will minimize fire weather risk.
..Wendt.. 01/23/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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