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LU9DCE > ALERT 24.01.20 07:03z 126 Lines 6803 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7786_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200124/0701Z 7786@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120
PM CST Thu Jan 23 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...
...SUMMARY... Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across
the southern and middle Atlantic coastal states Friday. A couple
strong storms are possible, and a damaging gust or a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.
...Synopsis... A stacked sfc-500 mb low will traverse the
Ohio Valley through the period, with a belt of 80+ knot
mid-level flow overspreading portions of the Southeast into
the Mid-Atlantic. The primary surface low will drift northeast
towards Lower Michigan. However, a secondary surface low will
develop across eastern portions of the Deep South/Carolina Piedmont
regions, as the aforementioned mid-level trough intensifies atop a
sharpening baroclinic zone oriented along the leeward side of the
southern Appalachians. Cyclogenesis across the southeast will be
accompanied by a northward surge of a modified, moist low-level
airmass originating from the eastern Gulf of Mexico, ahead of
a cold front. Increased low-level warm-air/moisture advection
and associated convergence along and ahead of the front, beneath
stronger flow aloft, suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development is possible, with the possibility of a couple storms
briefly reaching severe limits.
Elsewhere across the western CONUS, a mid-level ridge will begin
to develop, along with surface high pressure. As such, cooler
temperatures and large-scale subsidence will reduce the potential
for deep, moist convection in most areas. The one exception may
be northern Washington, where an embedded shortwave cresting the
developing ridge may promote enough deep-layer ascent, that along
with modest diurnal heating, may support a couple stronger updrafts.
Nonetheless, buoyancy is expected to be weak, with only a flash or
two expected.
...Portions of the Carolina Piedmont... Though low-level clouds
and showers will prevail throughout the day across the southeast in
the warm-air advection regime, some insolation will promote 6-7 C/km
low-level lapse rates ahead of the cold front. Modest mid-level lapse
rates (6 C/km) atop near 60F dewpoints will promote 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE values across portions of the Carolina Piedmont through the
later half of the period. Increased convergence along the cold front
will induce a broken band of relatively strong convection, likely
initiating around 21Z across southeast Georgia, with convection
progressing across central South Carolina into southern/central
North Carolina into the late evening/overnight hours. 50 knots
of deep-layer unidirectional shear, with up to 30 knots of 0-1km
shear (and some low-level veering noted) suggest that a couple of
the stronger, more sustained storms may organize, with transient
low-level rotation possible. As such, a couple of damaging gusts may
accompany a few of these storms. The magnitude of the shear amidst
relatively rich low-level moisture suggest that a brief tornado is
possible in the absence of a stable boundary layer.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/24/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Elevated thunderstorms may evolve over portions
of the southern Plains late Saturday night/early Sunday morning,
while a few lightning flashes may also occur over portions of
coastal Oregon/northern California late.
...Discussion... An upper low initially over the Midwest -- within
a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, will remain the predominant
feature over the U.S. Saturday, with ridging to affect much of
the West. Late in the period, a secondary/shorter-wavelength
eastern Pacific trough will approach the West Coast.
As a secondary disturbance rotating through the broader cyclonic
flow field surrounding the eastern U.S. upper low shifts into the
southern Plains during the second half of the period, development
of scattered/elevated showers -- and possibly a few embedded
thunderstorms -- is expected. Farther west, showers and the
potential for a few lightning flashes may also affect portions of
coastal Oregon and northern California late in the period, as the
eastern Pacific trough approaches.
Elsewhere, aside from potential for an isolated, offshore
thunderstorm near south Florida, thunderstorms are not expected
over the CONUS.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/24/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the
eastern CONUS, promoting cooler and rainy conditions for much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid Atlantic states. Meanwhile, a
weak surface lee trough is expected to develop across the central and
southern High Plains, with a mid-level ridge and associated surface
high pressure developing across the western CONUS late in the period.
Mild temperatures and relatively low RH will prevail across the
southern and central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. However,
weaker winds across the central CONUS preclude an organized threat
for wildfire spread despite curing finer fuels across the area.
Intensifying surface high pressure across the Great Basin will
promote dry and breezy offshore flow across portions of southern
California early Saturday morning. However, the lack of receptive
fuels across the region, and the brief/localized nature of the
stronger winds (confined to terrain-favoring locations of the
southern Transverse Ranges), suggest that an elevated area is not
warranted at this time.
..Squitieri.. 01/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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