| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:23z 94 Lines 4835 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17160_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190124/0701Z 17160@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are likely across the Florida Peninsula
later this morning, with a few strong to severe wind gusts and a
brief tornado possible. A few strong storms with damaging wind the
main threat will also be possible over eastern North Carolina later
this morning.
...Florida Peninsula...
A strong (50+ kt) southerly low-level jet will migrate through the
FL Peninsula this morning with theta-e advection resulting in 65-67
F dewpoints over much of central FL by 12Z. Despite this modest
increase in low-level moisture, instability will remain marginal
(generally below 800 J/kg) due to poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread clouds. A band of convection with embedded thunderstorms
will persist along the warm conveyor belt through the peninsula
during the morning. The kinematic environment accompanying a
progressive upper trough moving through the Southeast States will
favor a few organized structures including embedded bowing segments
and meso-vortices. However, tendency will be for the stronger
forcing associated with the upper trough to move away from the FL
Peninsula later this morning. This along with the expected marginal
thermodynamic environment lowers confidence in a more robust severe
threat. Therefore will maintain the marginal risk category this
update, mainly for isolated damaging wind and a tornado.
...Eastern North Carolina...
A surface low will develop over the Mid Atlantic States by the start
of this period in association with the northeast-ejecting shortwave
trough. The attendant intense (80+ kt) low level jet will develop
through eastern NC and eastern VA resulting in the advection of
low 60s F near-surface dewpoints inland and modest destabilization
of the surface layer, though widespread clouds and weak lapse
rates should limit MLCAPE to below 500 J/kg. With the stronger
forcing moving through the Mid Atlantic region early in the period
within a very favorable kinematic environment for organized storms,
potential exists for a low-topped pre-frontal band of convection to
intensify from eastern NC into eastern VA later this morning. This
band of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms may pose some risk
for mainly damaging wind gusts given 60+ kt just off the surface
that could be transported downward within the stronger convective
elements. Activity should move offshore by late morning.
..Dial/Squitieri.. 01/24/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140
PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will not occur across the lower 48
states on Friday.
...Synopsis... An enormous area of cyclonic flow aloft will envelop
much of central and eastern North America, with a parade of surface
highs moving down the Plains. This will maintain offshore flow
across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic, with little if any
instability nationwide to support thunderstorms.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Jewell.. 01/24/2019
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142
PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely over the lower 48 states
on Saturday.
...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist across most
of the CONUS on Saturday as a deep upper low rotates southward
across Ontario and an upper ridge holds over CA. A broad zone
of northwest flow aloft will stretch from the Canadian Rockies
to the Gulf of Mexico, and will favor offshore flow over coastal
areas. While a shortwave trough embedded within the northwest flow
will bring precipitation to parts of the Plains and Lower MS Valley,
little to no instability will be present for thunderstorms.
..Jewell.. 01/24/2019
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
