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LU9DCE > ALERT 26.01.20 07:14z 117 Lines 6501 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7888_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 26 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200126/0700Z 7888@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible
across the U.S., today through tonight.
...Discussion... Mid-level flow appears likely to remain broadly
cyclonic across the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic
through this period. Within this regime, a closed low, initially
over the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity at 12Z this
morning, likely will remain the most prominent feature. As a
significant short wave perturbation pivots around its southern and
eastern periphery, it appears likely to redevelop east-northeastward
across northern New England by the end of the period. As it does,
a surface low initially migrating northeastward near coastal Maine
is forecast to continue to deepen and become the primary associated
surface cyclone, with a trailing cold front continuing to advance
away from the Atlantic Seaboard, while stalling across or just south
of the southern Florida Peninsula into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Models suggest that one or two smaller-scale perturbations emerging
from the southern Plains and lower Rio Grande Valley may contribute
to weak wave development along the front over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. With the progression of the mid-level features, the ongoing
inland moisture return off the northwestern Gulf of Mexico appears
likely to become cut-off/shunted southward into the Gulf. However,
before it does, destabilization (based above a stable layer near
the surface) may become sufficient for scattered weak thunderstorm
activity near north central Gulf coastal areas today into tonight.
Meanwhile, farther west, larger-scale troughing approaching the
Pacific coast early today is forecast to become increasingly
fragmented while progressing inland and across the Cascades and
Sierra Nevada, downstream of ridging building into the Pacific coast
by 12Z Monday. While relatively cold mid-level air will contribute
to potential for diurnal destabilization across the higher terrain
into the Intermountain West, relatively cool and/or dry conditions
in lower levels are forecast to allow for the development of only
pockets of very weak instability. While some convection capable of
producing lightning might not be out of the question over a fairly
broad area of the West, thunderstorm probabilities appear generally
less than 10 percent.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 01/26/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Showers and thunderstorms are expected from portions
of the Southwest into the southern Plains, over central and southern
Florida, and possibly the coastal Pacific Northwest Monday/early
Tuesday.
...Discussion... A progressive upper flow field will continue
across the U.S. Monday, with numerous short-wave troughs traversing
the country. The three most significant features with respect to
convective potential will be a trough crossing the Rockies that will
enter the Plains overnight, a second disturbance moving eastward
across the Gulf of Mexico, and a third over the northeast Pacific
that will reach the Pacific Northwest by the end of the period.
In conjunction with these three features, three separate areas
of convection appear to warrant maintaining 10% thunder lines.
Within the thunder area extending from the Desert Southwest to the
southern Plains, daytime showers are expected to cross portions of
Arizona and New Mexico, while later in the period a more widespread
thunder risk should evolve over the Texas vicinity, mainly after
dark. In Florida, a weak surface frontal wave may be induced
along the remnant baroclinic zone, as the Gulf upper disturbance
approaches late in the period. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected in response, over central and southern portions of the
state. Finally, showers and possibly a few lightning strikes may
occur over the coastal mountains of Washington and Oregon, near the
end of the period. In all areas, severe weather is not anticipated.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Goss.. 01/26/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail across
much of the central and eastern CONUS, with a mid-level shortwave
traversing the Inter-mountain West. High pressure will dominate the
surface pattern across much of the southern U.S, though lee-troughing
will occur across the southern High Plains.
Given the aforementioned lee-troughing, downslope west-northwesterly
surface flow will promote dry and locally breezy conditions across
the southern High Plains during the afternoon hours, particularly in
eastern New Mexico. Dry northwesterly surface flow paralleling the
Florida Peninsula by afternoon peak heating will encourage enough
low-level mixing to promote 25-40% RH across central and southern
portions of the state. Overall weak wind fields across the southern
High Plains and Florida Peninsula preclude an elevated delineation,
though localized fire starts are possible where lower RH coincides
with drier fine fuels.
..Squitieri.. 01/26/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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In the Top 40, half the songs are secret messages to the teen world to drop
out, turn on, and groove with the chemicals and light shows at discotheques.
-- Art Linkletter
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