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LU9DCE > ALERT 27.01.20 07:32z 88 Lines 4820 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8042_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 27 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU1HVK<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200127/0701Z 8042@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... While scattered thunderstorm activity may impact
a few areas of the U.S., mainly this evening into tonight, and
perhaps most notably across portions of the southern Plains, the
risk for severe storms appears negligible.
...Synopsis... Much of the nation remains under the general
influence of split branches of westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific. However, stable conditions generally prevail,
largely due to a cool and/or dry low-level environment in the wake
of broad troughing now present across the Mississippi Valley through
western Atlantic.
Models indicate that the troughing will begin to shift east of the
Mississippi Valley, and the mean trough axis offshore of the Atlantic
Seaboard, today through tonight. But, beneath a lingering confluent
mid-level regime, westerly to northwesterly (offshore) low-level flow
will prevail across much of the Atlantic and eastern Gulf coasts.
There appears likely to be little further development of a frontal
wave migrating across the north central and northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, and it may actually weaken as it approaches the southern
Florida Peninsula and Keys.
Upstream, it does appear that mid-level troughing which has crossed
the Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin may dig southeastward and
undergo considerable amplification east of the southern Rockies.
This may support weak to modest lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis
across the southern high Plains by late tonight.
At the same time, another significant short wave trough emerging
from a strong mid-latitude Pacific jet is forecast to accelerate
toward the Pacific Northwest coast, within the crest of amplifying
larger-scale ridging across the eastern Pacific into the Rockies
by 12Z Tuesday.
...Florida... Any appreciable boundary layer destabilization ahead
of the frontal wave appears likely to remain largely confined to the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. In the presence
of strong deep layer shear, it is possible that scattered vigorous
thunderstorm development could impact at least the lower Keys
vicinity around or shortly after 28/00Z. This could be accompanied
by some risk for a potentially damaging wind gust or two around
Key West. However, given somewhat modest low-level hodographs and
thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates, among other
uncertainties, severe probabilities still appear less than 5 percent.
...Southern Plains... Although generally weak, it appears that a
narrow corridor of low-level moisture return, in the presence of
steepening lapse rates, will become at least marginally sufficient
to support scattered thunderstorm activity by tonight. North of the
Rio Grande Valley, this is expected to be rooted above the boundary
layer, aided by large-scale ascent associated with lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, particularly during the 28/03-09Z
time frame across southwestern and south central Oklahoma into
central Texas.
...Pacific Northwest... A frontal band with embedded convection may
spread into coastal areas between 28/00-04Z. However, thermodynamic
profiles more conducive to convection capable of producing lightning
appear likely to be confined to beneath the mid-level cold pool
(-28 to -30C at 500 mb) of the approaching troughing, which might
not begin impacting Washington and Oregon coastal areas until
after 28/08-09Z.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 01/27/2020
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Certain old men prefer to rise at dawn, taking a cold bath and a long walk
with an empty stomach and otherwise mortifying the flesh. They then point
with pride to these practices as the cause of their sturdy health and ripe
years; the truth being that they are hearty and old, not because of their
habits, but in spite of them. The reason we find only robust persons doing
this thing is that it has killed all the others who have tried it.
-- Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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