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LU9DCE > ALERT 28.01.20 07:15z 161 Lines 9108 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 01
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Sent: 200128/0700Z 8108@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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MD 0067 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020
Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma
Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 280542Z - 281045Z
SUMMARY...A quick transition to snow is expected over the next few
hours, with up to 1 inch/hr rates possible in a few locations. The
most likely time frame for the heaviest snow would be 08-12Z.
DISCUSSION...Precipitation (with embedded convective elements)
has steadily been increasing across portions of the central High
Plains, in tandem with an ejecting surface low and associated
mid-level shortwave trough, with increased deep-layer ascent
noted. Currently, low-level WAA has introduced above-freezing
temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer over parts of southwest
KS into the OK Panhandle, where mainly rain has been observed over
the past couple of hours (based on ASOS station measurements and
the latest KDDC dual-polarimetric radar data).
Nonetheless, low-level CAA is beginning to usher in from the north,
in association with a snow band, oriented along a MCK-GLD-ITR line,
per latest KGLD dual-polarimetric radar data. The surface-700
mb profile is expected to drop below freezing at/before 06Z
across southwest KS into the OK Panhandle with the approach of
the aforementioned snow band, with a near-saturated to saturated
low-level vertical profile developing (per latest RAP forecast
soundings). Continued deep-layer ascent, along with 50-100 J/kg
MUCAPE (near the KS/OK border) will promote efficient dendrite
production within a 700-1000 m deep, saturated dendritic growth
layer, particularly where convective elements manifest. Up to 1
inch/hr rates are possible, with both deterministic and ensemble
guidance (21Z SREF, 00Z HREF, 04Z HRRR) suggesting the most likely
period for the heaviest rates would be 08-12Z, mainly along/north
of the KS/OK border areas.
..Squitieri.. 01/28/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
LAT...LON 36599985 36520091 36570157 36690190 37110189 37760172
38400117 38470109 38830018 39009936 38689884 37909858 37229901
36599985
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms may impact portions of the
southern Plains into the northwest Gulf coast vicinity today into
tonight, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible.
...Synopsis... The next in a series of significant short wave
troughs emanating from a strong jet over the mid-latitude Pacific
is forecast to accelerate northeastward toward the northern British
Columbia coast during this period. As it does, models indicate
that sharp ridging will build downstream, across the eastern Pacific
through the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies by 12Z Wednesday.
To the east of the ridging, a vigorous short wave trough, initially
approaching the Pacific Northwest coast, is forecast to become
increasingly fragmented as it progresses inland, with most of
the emerging smaller-scale perturbations gradually turning sharply
south-southeastward through the Intermountain West. As this occurs,
downstream troughing, now east of the Rockies, appears likely to
remain progressive, and slowly shift across the Plains toward the
Mississippi Valley.
The elongated lead troughing is comprised of at least a couple of
smaller-scale perturbations, with perhaps the most prominent on the
southern end including an evolving mid-level cyclonic circulation
to the lee of the southern Rockies. Weak to modest cyclogenesis is
ongoing in association with this feature across the Texas Panhandle
into northwest Texas. However, models continue to indicate that
there will be little, if any, subsequent deepening today through
tonight. The low is forecast to redevelop southeastward across
eastern Texas into the vicinity of the Louisiana Gulf coast by 12Z
Wednesday, with a fairly sharp cold front surging southeast of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, through central Texas and Texas
Gulf coastal areas.
In the wake of a preceding cold front, associated with broad,
large-scale troughing continuing to slowly shift east of the
Atlantic Seaboard, boundary-layer dew points are relatively low
across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. And models indicate
that modification sufficient to support a substantive inland return
flow of boundary-layer based moisture is unlikely during this period.
...Southern Plains into Texas/Louisiana Gulf coast... Weak
thunderstorm development is ongoing across the southern Plains, aided
by increasing large-scale ascent and destabilization associated with
elevated moisture return. This activity may linger beyond 12Z this
morning across the Red River Valley, while also spreading east of
the I-35 corridor of Texas, before diminishing as initial forcing
weakens and/or spreads through the moisture/weak instability axis.
In the wake of this initial activity, despite marginal surface
dew points (lower/mid 50s F) for vigorous convective development,
various model forecast soundings do suggest that there is potential
for weak boundary-layer based destabilization to take place. Aided
by daytime heating beneath a mid-level dry slot, and subsequent
mid-level cooling, this probably will become focused along a
pre-frontal surface trough, which is expected extend from south
of College Station into areas near or just east of the Dallas-Fort
Worth Metroplex by late afternoon.
Although westerly deep-layer shear will be strong, low-level flow
and shear near this boundary may be weak, with the belt of stronger
southerly 850 mb flow shifting off to the east. And the extent
to which mid-level forcing for ascent is able to support sustained
convective development remains unclear. While an isolated strong
storm or two posing some risk for marginally severe hail and wind may
not be completely out of the question, severe weather probabilities
still seem less than 5 percent at this time.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 01/28/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible from the lower
Mississippi Valley through southern Georgia and a portion of Florida
Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms might also occur over a portion
of Arizona and New Mexico. No severe weather is expected.
...Lower Mississippi Valley through a portion of Florida...
Shortwave trough currently situated over the southern High Plains
will deamplify as it continues east through the Gulf Coast states.
Recent intrusion of continental-polar air into the Gulf will limit
moisture return inland. However, by 12Z Wednesday a warm front
will extend from a weak surface low near the LA coast southeast to
near the FL Keys. This boundary will move slowly north during the
day, but will remain mostly offshore. Modest theta-e advection and
isentropic ascent north of the front will contribute to an area of
ongoing showers and a few thunderstorms over the lower MS Valley,
and this activity will shift east along the Gulf Coast region during
the day, before reaching FL during the evening and overnight.
Instability will remain limited with MUCAPE generally less than
500 J/kg, especially with eastward extent toward FL.
...AZ through southern NM...
Steeper lapse rates and modest forcing for ascent attending a
southeast-advancing shortwave trough will spread into this region
during the day. However, limited low-level moisture will result in
MUCAPE less than 300 J/kg. A few thunderstorms, mostly with shallow
mid-level convection (bases near 700 mb) cannot be ruled out in this
regime, but coverage should remain sparse due to limited instability.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 01/28/2020
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