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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.01.20 04:00z 102 Lines 5489 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8165_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 29 01
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<NA7KR<ZL2BAU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200129/0700Z 8165@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Tue Jan 28 2020
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible
across the U.S., today through tonight.
...Synopsis... Models indicate that positively tilted mid-level
troughing over the eastern Pacific will undergo significant
amplification across the northeastern Pacific into British Columbia
and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs,
a vigorous short wave trough, now approaching the British Columbia
coast, is forecast to turn eastward, inland around the crest of the
ridge, and become increasing fragmented in splitting flow across
and east of the Canadian Rockies.
At the same time, one of several perturbations emerging from a
preceding inland advancing short wave trough, and now beginning
to dig into the U.S. Great Basin, is forecast to continue sharply
southward to the east of the ridging. As it approaches and crosses
the Southwestern international border area, it may provide support
for a developing frontal wave to the west of the Texas Big Bend by
12Z Thursday.
Downstream, models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging
will build from the lee of the southern Rockies through much of the
remainder of the southern tier of the U.S., today through tonight.
As it does, a significant short wave trough, initially crossing the
lower Mississippi Valley, is forecast to gradually lose amplitude
while accelerating across the Southeast, and east of the south
Atlantic Coast. But, it does appear that associated forcing for
ascent will remain sufficient to provide continuing support for weak
to modest surface wave development, along a frontal zone across
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the Atlantic waters north
of the Bahamas by 12Z Thursday.
...Southeast... Latest model output continues to suggest that
potential for the inland advection of weakly unstable, warm sector
boundary layer air across north central/northeast Gulf coastal
areas is low. If this air mass does advect inland, low-level and
deep-layer shear will probably be strong and supportive of organized
severe convection. However, at most, it currently seems that this
may only potentially impact southeast Louisiana coastal areas near
Boothville around 11-13Z this morning, with enough uncertainties
lingering to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent.
Otherwise, while there may be considerable mid to lower tropospheric
moistening ahead of the wave across the Florida Peninsula during
the day today, forecast soundings (particularly across the interior
peninsula) suggest that substantive moistening closer to the surface
may not take place until the 30/00-06Z time frame. The extent to
which this contributes to boundary-layer destabilization (mainly
across the southwestern and southeastern portions of the peninsula)
remains unclear, but the risk for severe weather currently appears
negligible.
...Southwest... Beneath cold mid-level (500 mb temps -24 to -28 C)
air accompanying the digging short wave trough, daytime heating
and orographic forcing may contribute to some convection capable
of producing lightning, mainly late this afternoon.
..Kerr/Squitieri.. 01/29/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220
AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms might occur across a portion of
Texas Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
...Southwest through central Texas...
A shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin region will move
southeast, reaching northern Mexico and far west TX early Thursday
before continuing east through the remainder of the State during
the period. A preceding Gulf frontal intrusion with offshore flow
will preclude any substantial moisture return. However, steep lapse
rates and ascent attending the shortwave trough will result in at
least weak MUCAPE (100-300 J/kg) with the base of the convective
layer between 600 and 700 mb. A few showers and thunderstorms may
spread from southwest through central TX during the day and into
the evening. However, coverage will likely remain isolated due to
limited moisture and instability.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 01/29/2020
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When I was younger, I could remember anything, whether it had happened or not;
but my faculties are decaying now and soon I shall be so I cannot remember
any but the things that never happened. It is sad to go to pieces like this
but we all have to do it.
-- Mark Twain
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