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LU9DCE > ALERT 31.01.20 07:14z 54 Lines 2779 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8297_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 31 01
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200131/0700Z 8297@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123
PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SUMMARY... A few severe storms may occur across parts of south
Florida and the Florida Keys this evening and overnight. Isolated
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should be
the main threats.
...South Florida and Florida Keys... Southwest mid-level flow will
remain in place across the eastern U.S. today as an upper-level
trough moves through the southern Plains. A 70 to 85 kt mid-level
jet out ahead of the upper-level system will move across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a low will move into
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as warm advection occurs across
the Florida Peninsula. Surface dewpoints will increase in the
lower to mid 60s F across south Florida this afternoon with the
moist airmass in place this evening into the overnight period. In
response, instability is forecast to increase with MLCAPE values
across the Florida Keys and south Florida reaching the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. The models are in reasonable agreement with developing
thunderstorms along the moist corridor in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
late this afternoon. This convection should move eastward into south
Florida this evening and waves of convection may affect parts of
south Florida through much of the overnight period. In addition to
moderate instability, forecast soundings at 06Z on Saturday in the
Florida Keys show 0-6 km shear values around 50 kt which should be
sufficient for an organized severe threat. The stronger short line
segments could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts. In
addition, 0-3 km storm relative helicities are forecast to increase
in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range after midnight which could support
a marginal tornado threat as well.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 01/31/2020
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-- MadameX
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