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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.20 07:04z 47 Lines 2252 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8452_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 03 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<GB7YEW<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200203/0700Z 8452@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112
PM CST Sun Feb 02 2020
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from Southwest Texas into
the Arklatex this evening through early Tuesday morning. Severe
weather is not expected.
...Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Arkansas...
A cutoff upper low currently near Baja CA will undergo significant
deamplification as it accelerates northeast through TX, while
being absorbed within the base of an amplifying upper trough now
approaching the Great Basin. Partially modified Gulf air with low
60s F dewpoints will return through central and eastern TX, while
simultaneously mid-level lapse rates will steepen, contributing
to 400-800 J/kg MUCAPE. However, the base of the unstable layer
will likely remain above the surface that will begin to stabilize
with onset of nocturnal cooling. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
initially over southwest TX by early evening. Thunderstorm coverage
will likely increase from central through northeast TX overnight as
forcing for ascent with the ejecting shortwave trough intercepts
greater low-level moisture and instability. While vertical shear
will be strong, storms will likely remain elevated above the stable
surface layer with a marginal thermodynamic environment likely to
preclude a risk for severe storms.
..Dial.. 02/03/2020
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