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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.20 07:03z 124 Lines 7101 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8488_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200204/0700Z 8488@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146
PM CST Mon Feb 03 2020
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... A marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms is
forecast today into tonight from east Texas into the Mid-South. A
few strong wind gusts are the main threat, but some hail will also
be possible over a portion of southeast Texas late tonight.
...Northeast Texas into the Tennessee Valley region...
The shortwave trough now accelerating through the southern Plains
will continue northeast through the lower MS Valley early in the
period. In wake of this feature a positive-tilt upper trough will
move slowly east through the southwest U.S., reaching the southern
High Plains later tonight. The forcing for ascent associated with
the upper trough will lag behind the surface front that should
extend from the OH Valley through northwest AR and northwest TX
at 12Z today. The front will advance southeast and stretch from
the TN Valley southwest through LA to along the TX coast by the
end of this period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing early today along the warm conveyor belt and in vicinity
of the front from AR into TN and KY. In wake of the early activity
some destabilization is expected in the warm sector from east TX
to the lower MS and TN Valley owing primarily to modest theta-e
advection with dewpoints increasing to mid 60s F as far north as
southern AR by early evening. However, widespread clouds and weak
mid-level lapse rates should limit MLCAPE to near or below 600
J/kg. Forecast soundings show a modest capping inversion around
750 mb, especially with southwest extent into TX.
Deep layer forcing will remain weak in wake of lead shortwave
trough, but additional storms may develop mainly from AR and
northern MS into the TN Valley this afternoon and tonight along
the southeast-advancing cold front. The low-level jet is forecast
to weaken during the day, but effective bulk shear from 40-50 kt
will persist within the broad fetch of stronger southwest winds
aloft. A few of the storms may organize and pose a risk for mainly
isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. The
marginal thermodynamic environment and lack of phasing between the
warm sector and deeper forcing accompanying the upper trough is
expected to serve as limiting factors for a more robust severe event.
...Southeast Texas...
A dryline will mix east through central TX today prior to cold
front arrival. The moist warm sector ahead of this feature will
become marginally unstable and is expected to remain capped to any
surface-based development. Later tonight an upper jet rotating
through the base of the upper trough will spread into south TX
with an attendant increase in the low-level jet. This process will
increase theta-e advection and isentropic ascent in post-frontal
zone resulting in elevated instability (400-800 J/kg MUCAPE) and the
development of a few thunderstorms. Strong effective shear though
the cloud layer along with up to 7 C/km mid level lapse rates might
support a risk for a few instances of marginally severe hail with
the stronger storms.
..Dial/Bentley.. 02/04/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CST Tue Feb 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN
AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable Wednesday
across the central Gulf Coast states with possible severe weather
extending east into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle
overnight Wednesday. A few tornadoes are possible from parts of
Louisiana eastward into Mississippi and Alabama. Wind damage may
accompany the more intense storms.
...Central Gulf Coast states... A large-scale mid-level trough
initially over the central High Plains extending southward into
northwestern Mexico will gradually translate east into the Plains
states during the period. A disturbance moving through the base
of the trough will move from southwest TX to the Ozark Plateau
by early evening and subsequently to the southwest Great Lakes.
Accompanying this mid-level impulse, strengthening southwesterly
flow fields will overspread a destabilizing warm sector across the
central Gulf Coast states. In the low levels, surface cyclogenesis
is progged over northern LA by midday Wednesday with the low
developing northeastward along a stalled frontal zone into the OH
Valley late Wednesday night.
Model guidance is in good agreement on the relative placement of the
frontal zone extending from LA northeast into middle TN. South of
this boundary, low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase
with surface dewpoints expected to rise into the lower-middle 60s
deg F. Coincident with surface cyclogenesis, sufficient heating
forecast during the diurnal heating cycle will likely lead to a
weakly to moderately unstable airmass from central LA northeast
into MS/AL. Models appear to favor a few convective scenarios
which may play out on Wednesday with 1) initial storm development
over LA near the boundary in proximity to stronger forcing to the
west/northwest, and 2) potential warm-sector development farther
east in southern MS in between I-10 and I-20 near a maritime front.
Forecast hodographs vary slightly between different model guidance
but a general supercell-wind profile would support the stronger
warm-sector initiating storms to develop into supercells with all
severe hazards possible. The strengthening 700-mb flow during the
day lends some confidence in storm evolution featuring a mix of cells
and convective bands. As storms move east during the evening and
overnight, a gradual decrease in instability will probably favor the
greatest severe risk becoming confined closer to the coastal plain as
the activity moves into eastern AL/western GA and the FL Panhandle.
..Smith.. 02/04/2020
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