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LU9DCE > ALERT 05.02.20 07:03z 186 Lines 10389 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8537_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 05 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200205/0700Z 8537@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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MD 0073 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST/NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0938 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2020
Areas affected...Portions of West/Northwest Texas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 050338Z - 050845Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop across portions of West and
Northwest TX this evening where snow rates will be 1-1.5" per hour.
Heavy sleet is expected just east of this region.
DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent is visibly spreading
across West TX ahead of a short-trough that continues to dig into
northern Mexico. Latest satellite imagery supports this with a
pronounced baroclinic leaf maturing across far West TX. Over the last
hour or so radar data suggests the snow line is advancing steadily
east, extending from Midland County - Scurry County - Stonewall
County. Surface observations, and mPING data, exhibit snow across
these counties and the snow/sleet line should advance another county
or so east into the early morning hours. An increasing precip shield
is expected to spread across northwest TX into southwestern OK with
the leading edge of this activity expected to be primarily sleet. As
deeper forcing spreads northeast, sleet should change to snow.
While some freezing rain may be noted across portions of the Big
Country, the primary winter threat will be due to sleet/snow.
..Darrow.. 02/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32250231 34279972 33739867 31550142 32250231
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CST Tue Feb 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today
and tonight across the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast
states. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes may accompany the
more intense storms.
...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery shows a deep upper trough
extending from the central High Plains southwestward into the central
Baja Peninsula. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger system
-- currently moving into northwest Mexico -- is expected to eject
eastward/northeastward across the southern Plains and into the mid MS
Valley today. As it does, the parent upper trough will trend toward
a more neutral tilt and southwesterly flow aloft will increase from
south TX into the middle OH Valley. By early Thursday morning, 500-mb
winds over 100 kt are anticipated from the Mid-South into IN/OH.
At the surface, the cold front currently extending from a low just
west of BNA southwestward to the TX Hill Country will continue
gradually southward/southeastward over the next few hours. However,
progression across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast is expected
to slow as cyclogenesis occurs over central LA and mass response
increases within the warm sector. This will result in a sharpening
of the temperature/dewpoint gradient along the boundary during
the afternoon before the low then progresses quickly northeastward
along the front, reaching middle TN by late Wednesday evening and
eastern KY by early Thursday morning.
Ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough as well
as near the surface low and along its attendant cold front will
contribute to thunderstorm development across much of the Lower MS
Valley and Southeast on Wednesday.
...Lower MS Valley...Southeast... A somewhat complex scenario
expected across the region today. Widespread cloudiness and
showers will likely temper daytime heating, keeping temperatures
in the upper 60s/low 70s. Modest low-level moisture is already
in place but the anticipated mass response could contribute to a
further increase. However, the strength of this potential moisture
increase is predicated on the intensity/coverage of any upstream
convection along the coast. Current expectation is for the bulk
of the coastal convection to occur across southern AL/MS and the
western FL Panhandle.
This leaves the potential for moisture advection across AL and MS,
which could occur amidst backing surface winds and strengthening
low to mid-level winds. Consequently, a corridor of slightly higher
severe risk may materialize from far northeast LA across central MS
into far west-central AL, near the track of surface low. However,
even with this anticipated moisture advection, instability will be
limited by poor lapse rates resulting from relatively warm mid-level
temperatures. Instability is expected to be the limiting factor,
given that vertical shear throughout the warm sector will be
more than sufficient for storm organization/rotation. Uncertainty
regarding instability as well as questions concerning the position
of the front and any effects of antecedent precipitation preclude
introducing higher severe probabilities with this outlook.
Current expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to begin increasing
during the early afternoon, becoming widespread by 00Z Thursday.
Damaging wind gusts within the bowing line segments along and just
ahead of the front will be the primary severe risk. A few tornadoes
are also possible, particularly within the corridor mentioned above
where mesoscale ascent will augment large-scale forcing and surface
winds will be more backed.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/05/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH GEORGIA AND INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, capable primarily
of damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes, are forecast from
the northeast Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas.
...Southeast... A mid-level trough over the Great Plains will pivot
east and intensify as it reaches the TN Valley and northeast Gulf of
Mexico by early Friday morning. Low- to mid-level flow fields will
intensify primarily Thursday evening and onward as a 500-mb speed
max strengthens to 140 kt by 12z Friday morning over SC. In the low
levels, surface cyclogenesis is expected over VA Thursday evening
with a low reaching the NJ/PA/DE vicinity by the end of the period.
An attendant cold front will gradually move east across the southern
Appalachians during the day before quickly moving east across the
Carolinas and much of the FL Peninsula late overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Thursday
morning across AL/GA/FL Peninsula with some of the stronger storms
potentially capable of damaging gusts. Low- to mid-level flow is
forecast to largely remain parallel to bands of convection extending
from western NC south-southwestward into the FL Panhandle during
the day. A moist/weakly unstable warm sector, featuring low-mid
60s dewpoints north and mid-upper 60s farther south, will yield
250-750 J/kg MLCAPE despite relatively weak lapse rates. However,
strong south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer slightly
veering with height will yield long hodographs. Damaging gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two are possible during the day with mainly
linear convective bands. As the early evening transitions into
the overnight, the aforementioned strengthening flow and forcing
for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will favor an
intensification of a squall line moving east across northern portions
of FL northward into SC (prompting a severe-probability upgrade).
The southern portion of the squall line will likely pose some risk
for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado over portions of the FL
Peninsula late.
Farther north across NC into VA, model guidance indicates a risk for
organized severe thunderstorm potential primarily Thursday night.
The threat for wind damage appears to be the primary severe hazard.
..Smith.. 02/05/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2020
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large scale trough will move across the Plains
today. At the surface, a front will be set up from the southern
Plains into the eastern Great Lakes. Significant precipitation will
fall along and east of this surface front. West of the upper trough,
cool and calm weather will prevail. Overall, fire weather concerns
will be low in this pattern due to minimal overlap between warm,
dry, and breezy conditions over dry fuels.
..Bentley.. 02/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Tue Feb 04 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move eastward
across the mid-Mississippi Valley on Thursday with a surface
cold front moving eastward into the Southeast. Some elevated
fire weather conditions may be present along the Rio Grande in
southern Texas. In this area, deep-mixing is expected during
the afternoon hours Thursday with the back edge of a mid-level
jet streak overhead. This may allow sustained winds to increase
to 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity expected to be 15 to 25
mph. Dormant grasses across this area could support fire spread,
especially since little to no precipitation is expected with the
storm system moving through the area on Day 1/Wednesday.
..Bentley.. 02/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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