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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.02.20 07:03z 213 Lines 9912 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8632_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200207/0701Z 8632@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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WW 33 TORNADO FL CW 070225Z - 070800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 33 NWS
Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 925 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central Florida Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 925 PM
until 300 AM EST.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
SUMMARY...Squall line across north Florida into the northeast Gulf
will move east across the central portion of the peninsula tonight
with scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible,
before weakening during the early morning.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles south southeast of Sarasota
FL to 40 miles north of Orlando FL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 31...WW 32...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm
motion vector 24040.
...Grams
WW 0033 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W APF TO
25 NNW FMY TO 10 NNE AGR TO 20 NW MLB TO 40 ENE DAB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
..JEWELL..02/07/20
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-055-061-071-093-097-070740-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER LEE OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA
AMZ552-GMZ836-856-070740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
WW 0032 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE PIE TO
20 SSE OCF TO 30 SW SGJ TO 15 NNW SGJ TO 30 ENE JAX TO 40 NE SSI
TO 30 E SAV TO 35 E OGB.
..JEWELL..02/07/20
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC035-107-109-070540-
FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FLAGLER PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SCC015-019-070540-
SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKELEY CHARLESTON
AMZ330-350-352-354-452-454-070540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHARLESTON HARBOR
WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS TO
25 NNW CRE TO 20 NNE ILM TO 5 SE EWN TO 15 SW HSE TO 50 SE HSE.
..KARSTENS..02/07/20
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 31
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC019-031-047-129-133-141-070440-
NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS NEW HANOVER
ONSLOW PENDER
SCC043-051-070440-
SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGETOWN HORRY
AMZ137-156-158-250-252-254-256-070440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS
MD 0102 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 33... FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2020
Areas affected...central Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 33...
Valid 070538Z - 070745Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 33 continues.
SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue east across the Peninsula,
with gusty winds around 40 kt most likely. Isolated severe gusts
are possible.
DISCUSSION...A well-defined squall line continues to move rapidly
east across the state, with strong wind gusts up to 35-40 kt common.
Strong deep-layer shear exists, along with 850 mb westerlies around
50 kt.
As the main upper trough lifts toward the Mid Atlantic,
large-scale support for any further severe threat is likely to
wane with southern extent, in part due to relatively warm midlevel
temperatures. Lightning trends support this idea, having decreased
over the past few hours. Still, low-level ascent will remain
sufficient for a continued line of thunderstorms, and strong wind
gusts will remain possible. Unless convective trends increase,
an additional watch may not be needed.
..Jewell.. 02/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26358284 27208215 28088159 28668128 29228091 28858058
27958036 27478022 27018038 26428113 26228185 26178241 26248277
26358284
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039
PM CST Thu Feb 06 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
contiguous United States today or tonight.
...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move northeastward
across the southern Appalachians this morning and into the
Northeast this afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the southern Florida Peninsula. Thunderstorms
will be possible along the front today from just south of Lake
Okeechobee southward to the Florida Keys. Instability should be too
weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United
States, thunderstorm development is not expected today or tonight.
..Broyles/Karstens.. 02/07/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132
PM CST Thu Feb 06 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48
states on Saturday.
...Synopsis... A large-scale mid-level trough will move east from
the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic, while a flattened
ridge shifts east across the central U.S. ahead of an amplifying
West Coast trough. In the low levels, relatively cool/stable
conditions due to surface high pressure over a large part of the
contiguous U.S. will prove hostile to thunderstorm development.
..Smith.. 02/07/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large-scale deep-layer trough situated over the
eastern CONUS will slowly lift northeastward throughout the day,
while a mid-level short-wave enters the Pacific Northwest. Flow
within the trough will remain generally enhanced throughout the day,
with 60+ kt northwesterly flow present from the northern Rockies
through parts of southern Texas. Sustained surface winds of 15-20
mph should develop along a corridor from northwest to southeast
New Mexico during the afternoon. However, the modest heating should
limit RH from approaching critical values, and thus, fire-weather
concerns remain low.
Elsewhere, a cool post-frontal airmass will overspread much of
Florida today, in the wake of an overnight convective line of storms
and associated cold front. Sustained winds of 15 mph can be expected,
however, the cool post-frontal temperatures and the recent rainfall
should limit the fire-weather potential in this region as well.
..Karstens.. 02/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The mid-level short-wave trough entering the
Pacific Northwest should retrograde somewhat, with a jet streak of
enhanced flow (80+ kt) paralleling and moving along/near the West
Coast throughout this evolution. As the core of the jet moves over
portions of northern California, diurnal heating may allow for these
winds to mix toward the surface, resulting in sustained northerly
winds of 15-20 mph. However, cool temperatures should limit RH
values from approaching critical thresholds, resulting in limited
fire-weather concerns.
Otherwise, the exiting eastern CONUS trough should continue to lift
northeast throughout the day. The combination of the aforementioned
mid-level processes should result in an elongated/weakening zonal
flow pattern that extends across the entire central CONUS by Sunday
morning. A lack of appreciable surface flow and RH combo will result
in generally quiet fire-weather conditions.
..Karstens.. 02/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Lactomangulation, n.:
Manhandling the "open here" spout on a milk carton so badly
that one has to resort to using the "illegal" side.
-- Rich Hall, "Sniglets"
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