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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.02.20 07:22z 92 Lines 4956 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8763_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200209/0700Z 8763@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128
PM CST Sat Feb 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat with hail and isolated
strong wind gusts will be possible across parts of the southern
Plains this afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains... West to southwest mid-level flow will be
in place today across much of the southern and central U.S. A
subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move east-northeastward
across the southern Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a cold
front will move southeastward into central Oklahoma and northwest
Texas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to
increase into the lower to mid 60s which should result in low-end
moderate instability late this afternoon. Increasing instability
and low-level convergence just ahead of the front should result in
isolated convective initiation. A few thunderstorms are expected to
develop from west of Dallas/Fort Worth southward into the western
Texas Hill Country and move eastward to the I-35 corridor by early
evening. Forecast soundings early this evening along the I-35
corridor show MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with 0-6 Km shear near 40
kt. This should support a marginal hail threat. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible. The magnitude of the threat should
be determined by the timing of initiation. If cells develop later,
the threat could be minimized.
..Broyles/Karstens.. 02/09/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough located along the West Coast
and associated speed max will move south throughout the day,
forming a cut-off low over southern California by the end of the
period. Winds along the western/northern periphery of this trough
will be quite enhanced, with 70-80+ kt northerly/northeasterly flow
residing over parts of northern into central California. As the
trough progression occurs, daytime heating will allow winds aloft
to mix toward the surface. Afternoon sustained winds of 20-30 mph
(gusts of 45+ mph) are likely across northern/central California
with an offshore trajectory. Despite strong winds, RH values are
expected to remain generally above 20% in most locations where
fuels are either green or non-receptive to large-fire spread due to
recent precipitation. Nonetheless, locally elevated fire-weather
conditions are possible, particularly in terrain-favored locations.
..Karstens.. 02/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A cut-off upper-level low over southern California
will shift east into parts of the Desert Southwest and amplify
somewhat. This process will result in a zone of enhanced mid-level
flow to remain anchored over central and southern California
throughout the forecast period. Consequently, offshore sustained
surface winds of 20-25 mph should develop over this region. Similar
to Day 1/Sunday, however, fuels remain generally non-receptive given
recent/forecast precipitation across the region. In addition, RH
values should remain above critical thresholds, although perhaps a
window may exist during the afternoon hours over parts of southern
California where RH values could approach 15% in a few isolated
locations. Thus, although locally elevated fire-weather conditions
are possible, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain low.
..Karstens.. 02/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The countdown had stalled at 'T' minus 69 seconds when Desiree, the first
female ape to go up in space, winked at me slyly and pouted her thick,
rubbery lips unmistakably -- the first of many such advances during what
would prove to be the longest, and most memorable, space voyage of my career.
-- Winning sentence, 1985 Bulwer-Lytton bad fiction contest.
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