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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.02.20 07:14z 126 Lines 6595 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8975_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<KC9VYU<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200212/0703Z 8975@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MISSISSIPPI
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible
late today into tonight from Mississippi into northern Alabama and
parts of southern Tennessee. A few damaging wind gusts or a brief
tornado will be possible.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough over TX will eject
northeast across the lower MS Valley and toward the OH Valley while
an upper high holds over the Bahamas. Cooling aloft will arrive
after 00Z into MS and TN, near the right entrance region of the
upper jet. At the surface, low pressure will develop over LA and
AR and will move northeastward toward PA by 12Z Thursday, along
with a cold front which will trail into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The air mass ahead of the front and low will initially be
cool/stable, but gradual destabilization will occur by late
afternoon and evening. In addition, midlevel lapse rates will
be poor, reducing instability. That said, shear profiles will be
strong, and conditionally favorable for a supercell and/or QLCS.
Weak instability, subtle height falls, and gradually veering
low-level winds may mitigate event magnitude. The greatest threat
area appears to be with linear storms along the front from late
afternoon through evening from MS into southern TN. Damaging wind
gusts are most likely. A brief tornado or two will be possible
given sufficient low-level CAPE and strong wind shear.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 02/12/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222
AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts are possible across portions
of the Southeast U.S. from Thursday morning through the afternoon.
...Southeast... A large-scale mid-level trough over the Upper
Midwest will pivot eastward to the Great Lakes/OH Valley by
early Friday morning. A lead disturbance, located over western
KY/TN at the start of the period, will weaken during the day and
move northeast towards New England by early evening as it moves
into increasingly confluent mid-level flow. In the low levels,
a surface low will migrate northeastward from PA to coastal New
England by midday and become increasingly displaced from the moist
sector located over the Southeast.
A low-topped convective line will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
across the western Carolinas and GA according to recent model
guidance. Weak lapse rates will limit the magnitude of instability
(50-250 J/kg MUCAPE) despite the presence of 60s F dewpoints.
However, very strong low-level flow will conditionally support
some risk for strong/damaging gusts via momentum transport with
a broken, low-topped convective line. Low-level convergence will
likely be weaker with southward extent (i.e., FL) where slightly
richer moisture will reside and perhaps limit storm coverage.
The threat for damaging convective gusts will cease with the squall
line/frontal passage from west to east during the day.
..Smith.. 02/12/2020
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CST Wed Feb 12 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the
Lower 48 states on Friday.
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough initially over the Northeast and
southern Appalachians midday Friday will gradually move east into
the western Atlantic by Friday night. The southern portion of a
cold front will push southward through the FL Peninsula during
the day. Although isolated weak convection is possible inland
during peak heating, thunderstorms are not currently forecast over
the central and southern parts of the FL Peninsula. Elsewhere,
tranquil conditions hostile to thunderstorm development will exist.
..Smith.. 02/12/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level longwave trough will be centered
over the central CONUS today with high pressure building into
the northern Plains at the surface. Strong mid-level winds will
be present over southwest Texas, some of which will mix toward
the surface during afternoon heating. However, relative humidity
is expected to stay above 25 percent at the surface, and much of
this area has seen precipitation recently. In addition, 15 to 20
mph northerly winds are possible in eastern Colorado and western
Kansas, but temperatures will be cool and relative humidity in
this area is also expected to stay above 30 percent. Therefore,
no fire weather areas are warranted.
..Bentley.. 02/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A strong surface high will move into the upper
Midwest on Thursday ushering in cool conditions for much of the
eastern CONUS. The only exception will be in far southeast Georgia
into the Carolinas where warm and moist air will be present ahead
of a cold front. Mid-level shortwave ridging in the western CONUS
will lead to calm surface winds. Therefore, the combination of
cool, moist, and calm conditions will limit fire weather concerns
on Thursday and thus no fire weather areas have been added.
..Bentley.. 02/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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