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LU9DCE > ALERT 17.02.20 09:04z 121 Lines 6338 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9541_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 17 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200217/0701Z 9541@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125
PM CST Sun Feb 16 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected Monday night
from parts of east Texas into the Southeast.
...Discussion...
Deep westerlies will be noted across much of the contiguous United
States during the day1 period with weak mid-level height rises
expected across the eastern US. While large-scale forcing for
ascent is not expected to be particularly noteworthy, low-level warm
advection should focus across the lower MS Valley into the OH Valley
as veered LLJ develops along this corridor. Latest short-range model
guidance suggests higher-PW air mass will return north across the
western Gulf Basin, advancing inland into the central Gulf States
during the latter half of the period. This air-mass modification
should result in increasingly buoyant profiles after 18/00z such
that parcels lifted near 850mb could yield MUCAPE values between
500-1000 J/kg. While forcing will not be particularly concentrated,
or strong, elevated convection is expected to develop within the
warm-advection zone. Forecast shear profiles suggest some of this
activity could be sustained, and possibly robust enough to produce
small hail. Additionally, convection may also develop along a frontal
zone as it sags southeast across the mid-South region. Even so, the
prospect for organized severe thunderstorms appears low this period.
..Darrow/Dean.. 02/17/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225
AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central
Texas through much of the southern U.S. on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A broad area of southwesterly flow will persist across much of
the eastern U.S. on Tuesday as a series of shortwave impulses
migrate through a larger-scale upper trough. At the surface, a
cold front will extend south/southwest from a low initially over
the Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley and central TX. Southerly
low level flow ahead of the cold front will result in 60s F surface
dewpoints across much of the Gulf Coast vicinity into the Southeast.
Widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/isolated thunderstorms
will limit surface heating, resulting in meager destabilization
within a modestly sheared environment. Deep-layer flow parallel
to the surface boundary also will lead to training precipitation.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the front
from central TX through much of the southern/southeastern U.S.,
but severe potential appears low.
..Leitman.. 02/17/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will cover much of the western
and central CONUS today, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from
the Pacific Northwest into the central/northern Rockies. At the
surface, high pressure will continue to build into the Great Basin,
while a cold front will sweep through much of the central/southern
Plains.
...Central/Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions may
result in locally elevated wind/RH conditions across portions
of east-central NM and west TX within a westerly flow regime
immediately ahead of the cold front, and also within the post-frontal
regime further north into eastern CO, southwest KS, and the TX/OK
Panhandles. The fire weather threat should generally be mitigated
by marginal temps/RH to the north, lighter winds to the south,
and marginal fuel conditions across the region.
...Northern California... Relatively dry and breezy conditions will
develop this afternoon across portions of the Sacramento Valley and
eastern slopes of the adjacent coastal ranges. Generally unfavorable
fuels should limit the fire weather threat, though locally elevated
conditions will be possible where dry finer fuels or dead fuels
are available.
...Southern California... Some increase in offshore flow is
expected later today and tonight across portions of southern CA,
as high pressure settles into the Great Basin. Locally elevated
wind/RH conditions will be possible across the higher terrain of Los
Angeles/Ventura counties by late tonight, but generally unfavorable
live fuel receptiveness and the lack of a more substantial pressure
gradient should limit the overall fire weather threat.
..Dean.. 02/17/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A broad, low-amplitude upper trough is forecast
to cover much of the northern/central states on Tuesday. At the
surface, an expansive ridge will spread over much of the CONUS in
the wake of a cold front.
...Southern California... High pressure over the Great Basin will
maintain the offshore flow regime across southern California on
Tuesday. While minimum RH values will likely drop below 15% across
higher terrain areas, generally unfavorable live fuel receptiveness
and a tendency toward a weaker pressure gradient in recent guidance
suggest that the fire weather threat should remain limited through
the period.
..Dean.. 02/17/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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