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LU9DCE > ALERT 20.02.20 07:05z 101 Lines 5116 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9768_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 20 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IZ3LSV<I3XTY<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200220/0700Z 9768@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly Thursday
morning from the Upper Texas Coast into Louisiana and southern
Mississippi. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
...Upper Texas Coast through Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
Weak theta-e advection will occur above a stable surface layer from
southeast TX into LA through early morning. Latest radar imagery
already shows convection, including a few thunderstorms, developing
over the northwest Gulf. This activity will spread inland along
the warm conveyor belt this morning. While instability will remain
very limited (200-400 J/kg) due to weak mid-level lapse rates, the
convective layer might deepen sufficiently for a few thunderstorms.
Thunderstorm potential should diminish during the afternoon as the
low-level jet gradually veers and shifts east of the corridor of
higher theta-e.
...Northern Florida...
A stationary front currently situated over central FL will
lift slowly north during the day before being overtaken by a
southeast-advancing cold front. While forcing in vicinity of this
boundary will be weak in presence of a modest capping inversion,
confidence of thunderstorm development is not particularly high,
with the best chance probably along and north of the cold front as it
advances southeast. Unidirectional westerly vertical wind profiles
with up to 50 kt effective bulk shear would support a conditional
risk for rotating updrafts. Farther south along the east central
FL coast, isolated showers and a couple of thunderstorms will be
possible, but a stronger mid-level inversion should limit overall
coverage of any thunderstorms.
..Dial.. 02/20/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113
PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis... The upper shortwave trough near the Atlantic
coast/Southeast will quickly pivot offshore over the northwestern
Atlantic on Friday. As this occurs, strong surface high pressure
centered over the southern Plains will develop eastward over the
southeastern U.S., and a cold front will surge south toward the
southern Gulf/northern Caribbean. This will result in mainly
cold, dry and stable conditions for much of the CONUS. An upper
trough/closed low over the northeastern Pacific will pivot eastward
to near the southern CA coast by the end of the period. As this
occurs, showers may develop by early Saturday morning across
southern CA/NV into AZ, but thunderstorms are not expected until
perhaps right around/just after 12z Saturday.
..Leitman.. 02/20/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The weather across much of the CONUS will continue to
be dominated by an expansive surface ridge today. Weak offshore flow
will become established this morning across portions of southern
CA, but winds and fuels should remain too marginal to support a
substantial fire weather risk in this region. Elsewhere, quiescent
fire weather conditions are anticipated.
..Dean.. 02/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to move inland across
portions of southern CA on Friday, as an upper trough and associated
cold front move through the Southeast. Offshore flow may persist
into the first part of the day across southern CA, but winds and
fuels should remain too marginal for a substantial fire weather
threat. Precipitation associated with the upper low will begin to
impact portions of southern CA by Friday night/Saturday morning.
Elsewhere, generally cool temperatures and marginal-to-unfavorable
fuels should limit the fire weather threat.
..Dean.. 02/20/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Every cloud engenders not a storm.
-- William Shakespeare, "Henry VI"
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