| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:24z 71 Lines 3618 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17299_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 27 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<N3HYM<LU9DCE
Sent: 190127/0700Z 17299@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105
PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur mainly this
evening across the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys.
...South FL and the Keys... A mid-level shortwave trough will
move across the Gulf of Mexico and through the base of an eastern
U.S. longwave trough on Sunday through early Monday morning. In the
low levels, a stalled front draped from the northwest Caribbean
northeast into the Bahamas will advance north as a surface low
develops and moves across the Everglades during the evening.
The poleward return of a moisture-rich airmass on the nose of a
40-50 kt LLJ will contribute to weak buoyancy developing across the
FL Straits and north into the Everglades. The low CAPE/high shear
setup will conditionally favor storm organization as deep-layer
forcing for ascent encroaches upon the west coast by early evening.
A forced band of convection from near the low and south along
the trailing cold front is the plausible scenario. The greatest
risk for cellular activity may occur in the Upper Keys where the
potential for larger buoyancy is highest. Given the conditional
nature of the severe risk, isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a
weak tornado are the threats with the strongest storms. The severe
threat appears to maximize between the early evening through late
evening hours and shift from west to east before diminishing as
the boundary pushes east into the Gulf Stream.
..Smith.. 01/27/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Sat Jan 26 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist across the lower
Sabine River Valley and the Louisiana coastal region.
...Discussion...
A notable short-wave trough is forecast to dig southeast across the
central Plains into OK/northwest TX by 29/00z. This feature will
encourage surface pressures to rise across the Plains forcing a cold
front to a position from western TN-northwest LA-southeast TX by
early evening. Aided by large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of the
short wave, weak convection is expected to develop along/immediately
behind the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Forecast
soundings across the lower Sabine River Valley suggest buoyancy
may be adequate for lightning within the strongest updrafts. While
a pronounced band of precipitation/convection should evolve along
the front, much of this activity should remain lightning-free;
although isolated thunderstorms are possible toward the LA coast
during the overnight hours.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 01/27/2019
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
