| |
LU9DCE > ALERT 28.02.20 07:03z 96 Lines 5003 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10323_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 28 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU3DVN<
LU9DCE
Sent: 200228/0700Z 10323@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120
PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk of severe storms appears negligible today
through tonight.
...Synopsis... Generally stable conditions prevail across much
of the U.S. and little significant change appears likely during
this period.
Within the main branch of westerlies emanating from the
northern mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that positively
tilted large-scale troughing will remain prominent east of the
Mississippi Valley. However, upstream large-scale ridging is
forecast to gradually shift eastward across the northern Rockies
and northern/central Plains, as broad troughing develops across
the northeastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest by 12Z Saturday.
Farther south, within a branch of westerlies emanating from the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a portion of the increasingly
sheared remnants of a mid-level low is forecast to continue spreading
inland across parts of the Southwest.
Strongest mid-level confluence into the eastern troughing appears
likely to gradually shift east of the Plains through the Mississippi
Valley by late Friday night. This will be accompanied by a building
surface ridge axis, to the north of a cold surface high centered
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The presence of this surface
high and ridge will continue to inhibit inland low-level moisture
return, though boundary layer modification over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico may gradually commmence.
With substantive low-level moisture return from the lower latitude
eastern Pacific also appearing unlikely, potential for appreciable
destabilization appears low. However, cold air aloft associated with
at least a couple of perturbations embedded within the larger-scale
flow may contribute to at least some risk for weak thunderstorm
development.
...Ozark Plateau vicinity... Cold mid-level air (-30 to -32C at
500 mb) and forcing for ascent associated with a digging short wave
impulse may contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization by
late this afternoon. This is expected to become focused ahead of a
reinforcing cold front, along an axis of stronger surface heating
across southwest Missouri into the Missouri Bootheel vicinity,
where thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of low-topped
convection capable of producing lightning. Activity will tend to
spread southeastward before diminishing after sunset.
...Pacific Northwest... Weak destabilization beneath the mid-level
cold core (-34 to -36C at 500 mb) of a vigorous inland advancing
short wave trough may become sufficient for a few weak low-topped
thunderstorms, mainly near Washington/northern Oregon coastal areas
by 29/03-06Z this evening.
..Kerr/Nausler.. 02/28/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158
PM CST Thu Feb 27 2020
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely Saturday across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to be in place over
much of the eastern CONUS early Saturday morning before continuing
eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this upper trough,
modest upper ridging will move from the Plains through the MS Valley
and a shortwave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest/northern
CA Saturday evening/early Sunday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures
(i.e. -35 deg C at 500 mb) will accompany this shortwave trough
but cool surface temperatures will limit instability, precluding
thunderstorm development.
At the surface, lee troughing will deepen throughout the day,
with eventual cyclogenesis anticipated over the central High
Plains Saturday evening. Resultant tightening of the surface
pressure gradient between this troughing and high pressure over
the Southeast will contribute to strong southerly winds across the
Southern Plains. Consequently, low-level moisture will begin to
return across TX. However, warm mid-level temperatures are expected
to be in place, limiting instability and thunderstorm development.
..Mosier.. 02/28/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Avoid reality at all costs.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Organizacion Radio Packet Argentina https://vk.com/ax25packet
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
