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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.03.20 09:38z 98 Lines 5075 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9974_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 23 02
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IR2UFV<N3HYM<LU3DVN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200223/0700Z 9974@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132
PM CST Sat Feb 22 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible during
the late afternoon into early evening mainly over parts of the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Hail or a brief/weak tornado will
be possible.
...Southern High Plains... An upper low will deepen as it moves
east from the Four Corners into the central Plains, with a deepening
surface low over the TX Panhandle during the day. Heating will
steepen low-level lapse rates over the southern high Plains,
with veering surface winds behind a dryline across the southern
TX Panhandle and South Plains. Ahead of the dryline, south winds
and mixing should result in mid to upper 40s F dewpoints up to the
triple point which is forecast to be over the central OK Panhandle
around 21Z.
Despite meager moisture, steepening lapse rates will likely result
in a pocket of around 500 J/kg MUCAPE over parts of the TX and OK
Panhandles, shifting into far western OK during the evening as the
low-level jet increases to 40 kt. Strong lift by 21Z will result
in a broken line of storms near the surface low, where supercell
wind profiles will exist. Marginally severe hail is expected, and a
brief/weak tornado threat may exist as well. As heating abates and
the system shifts east of the surface lapse rate plume, storms will
become wholly elevated by 03Z, affecting much of OK. Small hail is
possible with the nocturnal activity as well.
..Jewell/Cook.. 02/23/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...Synopsis... Guidance suggests that fire-weather potential
will continue to be concentrated across the southern High
Plains. A low-level cyclone will organize across the Texas
Panhandle/southwest Kansas and vicinity and a trough will sharpen
from the eastern Texas Panhandle south-southwestward to the Big
Bend region. A pronounced dry sector will develop west of this
trough, resulting in elevated fire-weather conditions.
...Eastern New Mexico and western portions of Texas... Heating and
vertical mixing processes will result in widespread areas of 25-35
mph westerly surface flow across the entire region, with wind speeds
peaking during mid-afternoon to early evening. Surface temperatures
rising into the 60s and low 70s F will foster 25-35% RH values
as well, with pockets of lower RH values likely where stronger
insolation can occur amidst mid-level clouds. These conditions
are consistent with elevated fire-weather criteria especially where
fuels are dry.
..Cook.. 02/23/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2020
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...Synopsis... A lead wave will dampen while ejecting northeastward
toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley while another wave and powerful
mid-level jet evolves from the northern Rockies toward the southern
High Plains. As this occurs, another lee cyclone will organize
across the Texas South Plains and result in elevated to locally
critical fire-weather conditions, particularly across eastern
New Mexico.
...Eastern New Mexico... 25-35 mph westerly surface winds will
once again develop across portions of the New Mexico Plains
southward into portions of the TransPecos during the afternoon.
Meanwhile, surface heating will allow for temperatures to rise
into the 60s and low 70s as RH values fall into the 10-15% range
areawide (slightly higher with southward extent). While these
conditions will ordinarily support a critical fire-weather threat,
concerns exist regarding fuels states and ERCs - especially with the
potential for showers across the region on D1/Sun. Finer fuels may
support a risk of fire spread, though they may not cure enough to
support a critical delineation. This aspect of the forecast will
be reevaluated in later outlooks.
..Cook.. 02/23/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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