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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.03.20 09:38z 112 Lines 5472 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9181_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 02
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200215/0701Z 9181@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
GNU / LINUX - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0846 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
U.S. tonight.
...01z Update...
Thunderstorm potential remains low tonight. Showers across south
FL should remain too shallow to generate lightning.
..Darrow.. 02/15/2020
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across
the U.S. Saturday.
...Southern Louisiana...
Dominant surface ridge is expected to remain influential along
the Gulf Coast through the day1 period. This feature will gradually
erode along the TX and LA Coasts late in the period as more favorable
low-level trajectories off the western Gulf Basin encourage modified
Gulf air mass to begin advancing north. Even so, deep westerly
flow across low-latitudes will not prove particularly favorable
for moisture to advance very far inland, at least during the day1
period. Latest model guidance suggests elevated buoyancy will begin
to increase across the central Gulf Coast during the latter half of
the period as a warm front advances toward southern LA. Forecast
soundings suggest elevated convection is possible after 16/06z
and warm advection should aid elevated convection late. However,
updrafts will likely remain too shallow to warrant more than a
few lightning flashes. While a thunderstorm can not be ruled out
across this region, thunder probabilities should remain less than
10% Saturday.
..Darrow.. 02/15/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159
PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.
...Synopsis...
A low amplitude upper trough will pivot eastward today from the MS
River to the western Atlantic waters. In the wake of this system,
quasi-zonal flow will encompass much of the CONUS. A weak surface
trough over the Plains will allow modest Gulf moisture to spread
northward from the TX coast toward the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley.
Isolated showers may develop in this warm advection regime, but
the absence of stronger forcing for ascent and scant instability
will preclude thunderstorm activity.
..Leitman.. 02/15/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large area of broadly-cyclonic mid-level flow
is forecast across the contiguous United States today. Meanwhile,
an area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast. While breezy westerly surface winds
(sustained winds of 15-20 mph) amidst locally-lowered minimum RH
values (e.g., less than 20%) are possible for a few hours this
afternoon across the southern High Plains, the brief/spotty nature
of these conditions and relatively marginal fuels should preclude
large scale fire weather conditions.
..Elliott.. 02/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is forecast to remain quasi-zonal
through much of Day 2/Sunday across most of the contiguous United
States, though broad cyclonic flow is expected to develop over
the West through the day. As this occurs, weak lee-side surface
cyclogenesis is expected over portions of the central/southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains... Low-level flow is forecast to strengthen
during the afternoon hours as the developing lee cyclone promotes
downslope westerly winds. The surface winds may be further aided by
the enhanced flow aloft, with sustained surface winds exceeding 20
mph in some areas. Minimum RH reductions are a bit more uncertain,
with guidance suggesting minimum RH values of 15-25%, but also
a generally unfavorable overlap of the strongest winds (farther
north) and lowest RH values (farther south). While meteorologically
elevated fire weather conditions are possible for several hours
during the afternoon, relatively poor fuel receptiveness (owing to
recent rainfall over the last 72 hours) should temper large-scale
fire weather conditions.
..Elliott.. 02/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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You single-handedly fought your way into this hopeless mess.
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