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LU9DCE > ALERT 01.03.20 09:38z 140 Lines 7290 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 9260_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 02
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ<N3HYM<
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Sent: 200216/0700Z 9260@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.19
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126
PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts
of southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the far western
Florida Panhandle.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Mid-level heights will be suppressed a bit along the central
Gulf Coast ahead of a weak short-wave trough later today. This
feature will progress into the lower MS Valley by 18z, then off
the FL Atlantic Coast during the overnight hours. In response, warm
advection processes appear to be strengthening across southern LA at
05z and showers are expected to gradually deepen such that lightning
could be noted across this region by sunrise Sunday. Deep westerly
component is expected to prevent substantial moistening inland
and buoyancy necessary for thunderstorms should remain confined to
near-coastal areas. Forecast soundings suggest any thunderstorms
that develop across this region will remain elevated and too weak
to warrant any meaningful threat for hail or damaging winds.
..Darrow/Elliott.. 02/16/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138
PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday night
into early Tuesday morning from northeast Texas toward the Tennessee
Valley region.
...Synopsis...
Quasi-zonal upper level flow across much of the CONUS on Monday
morning will become somewhat more amplified by the end of the
period. This will occur as a shortwave impulse ejects eastward
across the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile,
the larger-scale western trough will move across the Great Basin
toward the central Rockies. In response, deep-layer southwesterly
flow will increase in southern stream flow from TX through the Gulf
Coast states.
At the surface, a weak low over the southern Plains will develop
east/northeast toward the lower Ohio Valley, while a cold front
shifts southeast across the central/southern Plains overnight. Warm
advection regime ahead of the front will allow 60s F surface
dewpoints to spread across southern/eastern TX, eastward to
the lower MS Valley, with more meager boundary-layer moisture
spreading northward toward the lower OH Valley. Isolated, elevated
thunderstorms are possible near the front in this warm advection
regime overnight from northeast TX toward the TN Valley. However,
meager instability and weak forcing will preclude severe thunderstorm
development.
..Leitman.. 02/16/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain
over much of the contiguous United States through today as broad
cyclonic mid-level flow develops across the West. As this occurs,
surface lee-side troughing/cyclogenesis is forecast over the
southern/central High Plains.
...Southern High Plains... Low-level flow is forecast to strengthen
this afternoon/evening as lee troughing and enhanced flow aloft
promote downslope westerly sustained winds in excess of 20 mph
in some areas. While minimum RH values of 15-25% are expected
for a couple of hours this afternoon, the strongest winds (across
east-central New Mexico) are forecast to be somewhat displaced from
the lowest RH values (across west Texas). Locally elevated fire
weather conditions are possible for a few hours, though relatively
poor fuel receptiveness (owing from recent rainfall) should temper
large-scale fire weather conditions.
..Elliott.. 02/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2020
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Broad mid-level cyclonic flow is forecast to remain
over the West Day 2/Monday, while quasi-zonal mid-level flow persists
across the East. At the surface, high pressure is expected to build
over the Great Basin, while lee troughing weakens over the Southern
High Plains.
...Southern High Plains... Lee-side troughing is forecast to weaken
and shift southward Day 2/Monday, with a cold front following
in its wake. In advance of the front, modest downslope westerly
surface winds are forecast through the afternoon across portions of
east-central New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos region in Texas. While
locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a few
hours, these conditions are expected to be brief/spotty.
Gusty northerly surface winds (sustained winds in excess of 20
mph) are forecast behind the cold front across portions of the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, southeast Colorado, and western Kansas
during the afternoon. Minimum RH values are a bit more uncertain
across this area, as guidance offers a plethora of solutions --
though most models have at least pockets of minimum RH values below
Elevated thresholds. While a couple of hours of locally elevated
fire weather conditions are possible, fuel receptiveness across the
area remains relatively poor, which should temper large-scale fire
weather conditions.
...Northern California...
Northerly surface winds are forecast to strengthen over the
Sacramento Valley and eastern slopes of the Coastal Mountain Ranges
Day 2/Monday as high pressure settles into the Great Basin. While
minimum RH values near Elevated thresholds are possible, relatively
poor fuel receptiveness coupled with uncertainty regarding
duration/extent of RH reductions precludes introducing any fire
weather highlights at this time. Locally elevated fire weather
conditions may continue into the overnight along the eastern slopes
of the coastal ranges due to poor RH recoveries and lingering breezy
surface winds.
...Southern California... Offshore flow is forecast to strengthen
late Day 2/Monday as the surface pressure gradient tightens with high
pressure building into the Great Basin. While locally elevated fire
weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding the timing
of the stronger surface winds and overlapping minimum RH values
coupled with fuel receptiveness uncertainty precludes introducing
fire weather highlights at this time.
..Elliott.. 02/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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