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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.03.20 07:10z 128 Lines 6905 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10880_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 06 03
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200306/0701Z 10880@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CST Thu Mar 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Continental
U.S. on Friday.
...Discussion... An upper trough situated over the eastern
U.S. at the start of the period is forecast to progress steadily
eastward Friday, with a closed low evolving overnight, off the Mid
Atlantic/southern New England coasts, within the broader cyclonic
flow field. Meanwhile, a second trough over the eastern Pacific is
forecast to approach the West Coast late in the period. In between,
an expansive area of ridging/anticyclonic flow will prevail across
a large portion of the CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure is forecast to dominate most of
the country in the wake of the eastern U.S. frontal passage --
accompanied by dry/stable conditions. As such, appreciable lightning
risk is not evident across the country, through the period.
..Goss/Wendt.. 03/06/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Thu Mar 05 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered weak thunderstorm
activity is possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Rockies Saturday into Saturday night.
...Discussion... Models indicate that one significant mid-level
trough will be in the process of advancing east of the Atlantic
Seaboard by 12Z Saturday. In its wake, relatively amplified
large-scale mid-level ridging will become an increasing influence
east of the Appalachians, while also remaining prominent across
and east of the Mississippi Valley. Weak mid-level height falls
may commence across parts of the northern and central Plains, while
also continuing across much of the Intermountain West and Rockies,
in association with a number of generally weak or weakening short
wave impulses emerging from large-scale troughing centered near/just
west of the Pacific Coast.
One or two of these perturbations may provide support for deepening
surface troughing, from the lee of the northern Rockies into the
northern and central Plains, Saturday through Saturday night. At the
same time, models suggest that cold surface ridging will continue
to build in the immediate wake of the departing eastern troughing,
becoming centered near the central into southern Appalachians,
while also maintaining considerable influence across much of
the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region. While moderately
strong southwesterly low-level flow appears likely to develop
between these two features, from the southern Plains into the
Upper Midwest, substantive low-level moisture return is unlikely,
as models indicate that Gulf boundary-layer modification will only
allow for weak inland moisture return across the lower Rio Grande
Valley toward the end of the period.
Across the West, models do suggest that mid-level height falls and
cooling aloft, coupled with surface heating, may contribute to weak
boundary-layer destabilization across parts of the Rockies Saturday
afternoon and evening. Aided by lift associated with orography,
and perhaps weak warm advection, it appears possible that this
could become sufficient for isolated to widely scattered weak
thunderstorm activity.
Otherwise, cold mid-level air (including at or below -30C at 500
mb) associated with an inland migrating short wave trough probably
will contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization west of the
Cascades by early Saturday. This may be accompanied by widely
scattered weak thunderstorm development that could linger into
the afternoon, before diminishing as the mid-level perturbation
progresses into the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.
..Kerr.. 03/06/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2020
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move off the East Coast
today. In it's wake, an upper-level ridge will become situated over
the central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will build into
the Plains and Midwest as a cold front departs into the Gulf and
Atlantic waters.
...Southern High Plains... Surface winds will shift to southerly
during the day as the high pressure system moves eastward. This
setup will allow for relatively unmodified continental polar air
to remain across the region before trajectories cover an increasing
fetch of the Gulf by D2/Saturday. Lee troughing along the northern
High Plains will help to strengthen surface flow to 15-20+ mph. RH
during the afternoon will reach perhaps as low as 15%, but generally
remain in the 20-25% range in most locations. Some high cloud cover
may stunt boundary-layer mixing. The strongest surface winds will
exist farther west with lower RH to the east. Locally critical
conditions would be favored in the eastern OK/TX Panhandles where
overlap of critical wind/RH combinations are most probable.
...Portions of Great Basin... Surface troughing with the approach
of a mid-level trough along the West Coast will induce 15-25 mph
surface winds. RH is somewhat questionable with a fair amount
disagreement in guidance as to how broadly an area will see values
below 20%. Given the potential for high/mid-level clouds, there
will likely be a tendency for RH to struggle to reach elevated
criteria. Nonetheless, areas of favorable wind/RH overlap within
the lower elevation valleys have potential for elevated fire weather
concerns during the afternoon.
...Eastern Montana and western North Dakota... Strong
westerly/southwesterly flow aloft will combine with surface
troughing to promote dry breezy conditions during the afternoon.
High-level cloud cover will be a concern here as well, though
15-20 mph downsloping winds should help to compensate for decreased
mixing efficiency. While snowpack has recently melted, 10/100-hr
fuel observations indicate that elevated fire weather concerns
are supported.
..Wendt.. 03/06/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Have a nice diurnal anomaly.
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