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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.03.20 07:03z 136 Lines 7430 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10941_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 03
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU3DVN<
LU9DCE
Sent: 200307/0700Z 10941@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147
PM CST Fri Mar 06 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Pacific Northwest and Rockies today.
...Synopsis... As an upper trough vacates the eastern U.S. today,
large-scale ridging will prevail across much of the country,
ahead of the next upper short-wave trough shifting inland from the
eastern Pacific. This trough is forecast to weaken with time as
it moves into the Intermountain region overnight and encounters
the steadfast large-scale ridge.
At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half
of the country. In the West, a weakening front will shift eastward
with time, in conjunction with the weakening upper system.
Thunderstorms are not expected east of the Rockies. In the West,
showers -- and occasional/embedded lightning -- will be possible,
mainly during the first half of the period over the Pacific
Northwest coastal region. A few lightning strikes will also be
possible over the Intermountain region -- particularly across parts
of southeast Idaho/Utah/southwestern Wyoming/western Colorado.
The convection will evolve in conjunction with the approaching
upper system and associated surface front, primarily during the
afternoon and evening hours.
..Goss/Wendt.. 03/07/2020
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111
PM CST Fri Mar 06 2020
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible
across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night.
...Discussion... Initially amplified mid-level ridging over the
central Pacific may undergo some suppression during this period,
as a series of short wave perturbations gradually round its crest.
As this occurs, the northern branch of split downstream westerlies
may trend more zonal across the northern mid-latitude eastern Pacific
through southern Canada and adjacent portions of the northern tier
of the U.S. The primary troughing within this regime is forecast to
shift east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairies. As it does,
models suggest that a surface cyclone initially over the Dakotas
will migrate into the Upper Midwest and weaken, but a trailing cold
front is forecast to surge southward toward the central Plains.
Meanwhile, in lower latitudes, the southern branch is forecast to
remain more amplified as a significant closed low continues to dig
across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific.
This will continue to force the northeastward acceleration of a much
more modest perturbation, inland across the Southwest and southern
Rockies, into the south central Plains by the end of the period,
around the northwestern periphery of lingering large-scale ridging.
As this occurs, modest secondary surface low development within
surface troughing to the lee of the Rockies may migrate out of
Colorado into western Kansas, ahead of the southward advancing
cold front.
As cold surface ridging only gradually shifts from the lee of
the southern Appalachians eastward into the western Atlantic,
moderately strong south to southwesterly low-level (including around
850 mb) flow will be maintained across the southern Plains through
portions of the upper to middle Mississippi Valley and southern
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Some strengthening appears possible as
far south as northwestern Gulf coastal areas by late Sunday night.
However, models continue to indicate that boundary-layer modification
over the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of recent stabilization, will
not become sufficient to support substantive deep boundary-layer
moisture return to the lee troughing.
Further complicating potential destabilization across the central and
southern Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley, models indicate
that precipitation falling from convection developing within a plume
of mid/high-level moisture return from the lower-latitude eastern
Pacific, will tend to stabilize mid to low-level lapse rates ahead
of weak Gulf moisture return. However, various model forecast
soundings do continue to suggest that a corridor of steepening
lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates just ahead of the cold front,
and near the surface low over the central Plains, may contribute to
thermodynamic profiles at least marginally conducive to scattered
weak thunderstorm activity late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
Orographic forcing may also contribute to the development of
convection capable of producing lightning across parts of the
southern Rockies, and perhaps the Davis Mountains area of southwest
Texas, Sunday afternoon.
..Kerr.. 03/07/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2020
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the East Coast with
a strong northerly jet impacting much of the region today. Across
the central U.S., a large-scale ridge will remain established. A
mid-level shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves into
the northern Rockies. At the surface, cyclogenesis within eastern
Montana and a strong surface high in the southeast will lead to
increased southerly/westerly winds from portions of the northern
High Plains into parts of the southern Plains.
...Southern/central Plains... Given dewpoints that were observed
yesterday afternoon as well as the dry airmass sampled by regional
00Z RAOBS, afternoon RH is likely to fall to similar or slightly
lower values than yesterday. Stronger surface winds of 15-30 mph
with 20-30% RH will support elevated fire weather concerns.
...Northern High Plains... Westerly winds will strengthen to
15-20 mph during the afternoon as the surface low deepens to
the northwest and subtle mid-level shortwave disturbance passes
overhead. Similar to the southern/central Plains, yesterday's
afternoon dewpoints and 00Z RAOBS suggest RH will fall lower than
most guidance suggests. With 15-20% RH expected, an elevated area
has been added in parts of the Nebraska Panhandle and adjacent
South Dakota/eastern Wyoming.
...Florida... A few areas of elevated fire weather concerns are
possible within the western and central Florida Peninsula during
the afternoon. Northerly/northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph with RH
falling to 25-40% is expected.
..Wendt.. 03/07/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Marriage Ceremony: An incredible metaphysical sham of watching God and the
law being dragged into the affairs of your family.
-- O. C. Ogilvie
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