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LU9DCE > ALERT 09.03.20 07:10z 147 Lines 8100 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11068_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 09 03
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<HB9CSR<IR2UBX<DB0RES<ON0AR<VK6HGR<OK2PEN<PY2BIL<LU9DCE
Sent: 200309/0701Z 11068@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128
PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY... A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, potentially
capable of hail and localized damaging gusts, is forecast across
parts of the western Ozark Plateau during the early evening hours.
...Eastern OK/western Ozark Plateau... An east-northeastward
migratory shortwave trough is forecast to move from the southern
Great Plains to the OH Valley during the period. Gradually
moistening, southerly low-level flow is forecast across the eastern
OK vicinity during the day in wake of early day clouds/rain. By late
afternoon, a cold front is progged to extend from a surface low over
the mid MS Valley southwestward into OK with the trailing portion of
the boundary located in northwest TX. Models are showing a narrow
plume of 56-60 degrees F surface dewpoints extending from the Red
River north-northeast to the MO/AR/OK border region by early evening.
Heating coupled with the modest boundary layer moisture will likely
yield 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern OK. Low-level convergence
on the boundary and weakening CINH will probably contribute to
at least isolated storms developing along the boundary by late
afternoon/early evening. As the storms intensify during a narrow
time window during the early evening (2 hour period), large hail
and locally severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms before
this activity dissipates by mid evening.
..Smith/Wendt.. 03/09/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south
central Plains into Ozark Plateau Tuesday night, accompanied by at
least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Models continue to suggest that mid/upper flow may
begin to become less progressive and characterized by increased
blocking across the eastern Pacific during this period. As this
occurs, a closed mid-level low, initially over the southern
mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, will be slow to
progress eastward. Within larger-scale troughing, it appears that
the low may begin to weaken while elongating northeastward across the
central and southern California coast through the Sierra Nevada and
lower Colorado Valley. The mid-level cold core may remain offshore
through much of the period.
Downstream of the mid-level low and troughing, mid-level ridging
may be maintained across the southern Rockies and southern Plains.
However, there may be some suppression of the ridging by late
Tuesday night, mainly north of the Red River. Models indicate
that this could occur in response to a short wave trough digging
across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, within
a much more progressive branch of westerlies across the northern
mid-latitude Pacific through southern Canada and the northern tier
of the United States.
In association with a couple of downstream perturbations, a
modest surface low is forecast to migrate from the southwestern
Quebec/Ontario border vicinity into the Canadian Maritimes, with
a trailing cold front advancing southeastward through much of the
Northeast, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley. The western flank of
the front is forecast to stall across the south central Plains,
and perhaps return slowly northward, as another weak to modest
surface low migrates southeastward out of Colorado, across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region by late Tuesday night.
To the south of the surface front, further boundary layer moistening,
coupled with steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, may
yield weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE (500-1000 J/kg) across
much of central/eastern Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley by late Tuesday afternoon. However, this will largely take
place beneath the mid-level ridging, where warm layers aloft may
tend to inhibit deep convective development, and the potential for
thunderstorms is largely conditional on uncertain forcing for ascent.
...South central Plains into Ozark Plateau... Potential for
thunderstorm initiation near the intersection of the initially
stalled surface front and deepening lee surface troughing across
northwest Texas now appears too conditional to maintain even low
severe probabilities. However, a strengthening low-level warm
advection regime to the northeast may still provide a focus for
scattered strong thunderstorms, mainly after 11/06Z Tuesday night,
as elevated moisture return above the surface front contributes to
most unstable CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.
Model forecast soundings suggest that the environment may become
conducive to storms capable of producing marginally severe hail.
A developing area of enhanced lift, aided by 850 mb low-level jet
strengthening to 30-40+ kt may support a small upscale growing and
organizing cluster of storms across parts of south central Kansas
into northeastern Oklahoma. In addition to some hail, this cluster
could also support a few strong surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 03/09/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... In an otherwise quasi-zonal flow regime aloft, a
mid-level shortwave will progress northeastward out of the southern
Plains and into the Midwest today. At the surface, a cyclone will
follow a similar track out of Kansas and into the upper Great Lakes
region. A cold front will push as far south as the Red River vicinity
and stretch northeastward into Illinois and Michigan.
Patches of dry fine fuels are possible in portions of the
Mid-Atlantic with dry conditions expected for the second consecutive
day. Weak surface winds will generally remain below elevated
thresholds, however. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible
in parts of eastern New Mexico. Precipitation from Sunday evening
will limit potential for fire spread across the area.
..Wendt.. 03/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain quasi-zonal across much of
the CONUS on D2/Tuesday. A closed upper-low will near the southern
California coast. Increasing westerly flow over the southern/central
Rockies will lead to another lee trough/cyclone developing in
eastern Colorado. Dry and breezy conditions will once again be
possible in northeastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the
TX/OK Panhandles. While surface winds will likely reach 15-20 mph,
RH appears that it will remain above 20% for most locations as
boundary-layer mixing is stunted by mid/high-level clouds.
..Wendt.. 03/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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The nice thing about standards is that there are so many of them to choose
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-- Andrew S. Tanenbaum
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