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LU9DCE > ALERT 10.03.20 07:03z 182 Lines 10222 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11134_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 10 03
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 200310/0701Z 11134@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248
AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKASAS AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms from
central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late
this evening into the overnight. A couple of strong thunderstorms
are possible within the southern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon.
...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwave
troughs will exist across the eastern two-thirds of the
CONUS. A shortwave disturbance early Tuesday morning over the
Midwest will move eastward into the Northeast. An attendant
surface low will deepen and cold front will push into the
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Later in the period, an impulse over
the northern Rockies will progress southeastward into the central
Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak surface cyclone will develop
in eastern Colorado, moving southeastward into Oklahoma by the end
of the period.
...Kansas/Oklahoma into the Ozarks... Steep mid-level lapse
rates will advect into the region within the northwest flow regime
aloft. As the surface low deepens, strong elevated thunderstorms
are likely to develop around 05Z along the weak advancing cold
front as a modest increase in the low-level jet occurs during the
evening and overnight. Large hail will the primary threat with
initial activity, supported by 500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE and adequate
deep-layer shear for storm organization. With time, this activity
is expected to grow upscale and the primary threat transitioning
to an isolated wind hazard.
...Southern San Joaquin Valley... As a closed upper-low approaches
southern California, strong ascent and 50-60 kts of mid-level
flow will overlap a warming/moistening boundary layer during the
afternoon. A few stronger cells may produce isolated strong wind
gusts. Cold temperatures aloft may support small hail, though
relatively weak buoyancy should limit severe hail potential. Other
isolated, strong storms are possible in parts of southern coastal
Calfiornia, but considerable uncertainty remains precluding low
probabilities.
...Mid-Atlantic... Scant buoyancy of 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE may
develop during the late afternoon ahead of the advancing cold
front. Forecast soundings show very modest inverted-V profiles that
would support some potential risk for strong/damaging wind gusts,
given the strong low-level flow. However, the weak, low-topped
nature of the convection along with the surface low displaced to
the northeast creates enough uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity
that no severe probabilities will be introduced this outlook.
..Wendt/Smith.. 03/10/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND MID SOUTH...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the
Ozark Plateau and Mid South vicinity Wednesday, accompanied by at
least some risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... The transition to a less progressive regime becoming
characterized by increasing blocking appears likely to continue
across the eastern Pacific. As this proceeds, little, if any,
eastward progression of mid-level troughing initially near and
southwest of the southern California coast is forecast, and an
embedded closed low may tend to redevelop southward away from the
coast during this period.
Downstream, models indicate that broad mid-level ridging will
generally be maintained across the northern Mexican plateau and
southern Rockies, through the Gulf Coast region. However, one short
wave trough progressing through a lingering much more progressive
belt of westerlies across southern Canada and the northern tier
of the U.S. may contribute to some suppression of the crest of the
ridging, from the Ozark Plateau and Mid South through the southern
Mid Atlantic Coast region by Wednesday evening.
A much more significant and vigorous trailing perturbation is
forecast to dig across the central Canadian/U.S. border area,
and to the east of the northern Rockies, and could contribute
to some suppression of the southern branch ridging, across the
central Plains into middle Mississippi Valley, by late Wednesday
night. Models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by a
southeastward migrating cyclone across the Canadian Prairies, and
broad deepening surface troughing across the northern Plains/upper
Mississippi valley, south-southwestward through the south central
Plains by 12Z Thursday.
As all this occurs, destabilization supportive of widely scattered
to scattered thunderstorm activity appears likely to be largely
confined to the southern tier of the United States. East of the
Rockies, this seems likely to generally remain along and south of
a weakening frontal zone, initially extending across the southern
Mid Atlantic coast into the Ozark Plateau and south central Plains.
With flow above the near surface layer, to the south of the front,
maintaining a substantial westerly component, models indicate
little further influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. However,
lingering lower/mid 60s surface dew points inland of the coast may
contribute to weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization across
parts of west central and northern Texas into the Ozark Plateau, and
perhaps eastward into northern portions of the eastern Gulf States.
...Ozark Plateau into Mid South vicinity... Models continue to
indicate that forcing for ascent, near the southern periphery of
the lead northern branch short wave trough, may be contributing
to a sustained, evolving cluster of thunderstorms across parts
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday.
This forcing may be largely driven by low-level warm advection
associated with a 30-40 kt 850 mb jet (accompanying an eastward
propagating 50+ kt mid-level speed maximum), which may continue into
the day and spread east-southeastward across the Ozark Plateau.
However, at some point, this appears likely to weaken in response
to aforementioned larger-scale pattern developments, though the
mid-level perturbation likely will continue eastward across and east
of the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians by Wednesday evening.
At the present time, there appears at least some organized severe
weather risk across parts of northern/central Arkansas through
western Tennessee and northern Mississippi, with potential remaining
more unclear farther east. Severe probabilities appear to remain
constrained to 5 percent by continuing model discrepancies and
somewhat marginal thermodynamic/kinematic conditions, but it
is possible that this could change in later outlook updates for
this period.
...North central/northeast Texas... Severe weather potential still
appears largely conditional due to negligible/uncertain forcing
for ascent. But, pre-frontal surface heating is forecast to become
maximized along an axis extending northeastward out of the Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country vicinity, and may support moderately large
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg by late Wednesday afternoon. If storms
can initiate, shear profiles may become sufficient to enhance the
risk for severe hail and locally strong gusts in stronger activity.
..Kerr.. 03/10/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern will remain quasi-zonal
across areas east of the Divide, today. Strengthening zonal flow
across the Rockies and an approaching shortwave trough from the
north will cause lee troughing/cyclogenesis in the central High
Plains. As this occurs, surface winds in northeastern New Mexico
and the western Texas Panhandle will likely reach the 15-20 mph
range. Locally elevated conditions may develop where RH can fall
below 20% for a brief portion of the afternoon.
..Wendt.. 03/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2020
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Another shortwave trough will dive southward
and impact the central/northern High Plains on D2/Wednesday. Lee
troughing will develop in this same regions, eventually helping
to advance a cold front southward by the end of the period. Dry
and windy conditions are most probable in the Nebraska Panhandle
vicinity. The surface trough along with modest boundary-layer mixing
of flow aloft will promote 15-20+ mph winds across the area. Fuel
dryness is the main source of uncertainty for whether elevated fire
weather concerns will develop. Rainfall from Monday as well as modest
temperatures/RH on Tuesday make it difficult to determine whether
fine fuels will be critically dry on a broad basis. Furthermore,
it also uncertain how long RH will fall below elevated thresholds
during the afternoon. At this time, no highlights will be introduced.
..Wendt.. 03/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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If you think the problem is bad now, just wait until we've solved it.
-- Arthur Kasspe
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