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LU9DCE > ALERT 12.03.20 07:04z 191 Lines 10783 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11265_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 12 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 200312/0701Z 11265@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203
AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail and
wind damage are likely across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible in parts of the Arklatex and Ozarks. A
few marginally severe storms could occur in the Desert Southwest.
...Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Great Plains
today as a 75 to 100 kt mid-level jet moves across the central
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. A secondary 60 to 80 kt
mid-level jet will move into the lower Ohio Valley. Increasing
low-level moisture ahead of a cold front will result in surface
dewpoints in the 60 to 65 F range from southeast Missouri and
northeast Arkansas eastward across western Kentucky and Tennessee.
This will lead to the development of an east to west corridor of
instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to first
develop across south-central Missouri this morning and spread
eastward into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee by early
to mid afternoon. The instability combined with strong deep-layer
shear will be favorable for severe storms.
Concerning the finer-scale details, scattered thunderstorms should
develop near a surface low in south-central Missouri around midday
with this convection moving eastward across southern Illinois nad
into western Kentucky early this afternoon. This activity should stay
along and to the south of a warm front extending eastward from the
surface low. Cells that can move into the air south of the warm front
will likely be surface-based, and will have the greatest chance to
become severe. Forecast soundings near Paducah this afternoon show
MLCAPE near 750 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 60-65 kt. Hodographs show
strong speed shear in the lowest 1 km AGL with strong directional
shear below 850 mb. This will be favorable for supercells and
tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely be greatest in association
with the 850 mb and 500 mb jet couplet. Storm relative helicities
of 450 to 550 m2/s2 will support a threat for significant tornadoes
as well. Supercells that move along and parallel to the warm front
should have the greatest potential for tornadoes. A threat for large
hail and wind damage will also be associated with supercells. A
wind-damage threat will also be possible with bowing line segments.
Further southwest across the Arklatex and Ozarks, a cold front
will advance southeastward this afternoon. Model forecast
suggest that a pocket of instability will develop ahead of the
front. Convection that initiates along and ahead of the front will
move east-southeastward across the region. Surface dewpoints in
the mid 60s F, MLCAPE of 500 to 750 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 50
kt will likely support the development of isolated severe storms
with potential for wind damage and hail.
...Desert Southwest... An upper-level low will move slowly eastward
off the coast of southern California. A 75 to 100 kt mid-level
jet will move through the southeastern part of the system with
the exit region affecting the Desert Southwest today. A surface
low will deepen beneath the mid-level jet as a moist airmass with
surface dewpoints in the 55 to 60 F range remains in place across
southeast California and southwest Arizona. Surface heating will
allow a pocket of instability to develop by afternoon with MLCAPE
reaching 500 J/kg in many locations. As scattered thunderstorms
develop this afternoon, the instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a marginal severe
threat. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger
multicell clusters and short line-segments.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 03/12/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155
PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO....
...SUMMARY... A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible near
the higher terrain of southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico
Friday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis... It still appears that an amplified blocking regime
will become better established across the eastern Pacific into
western North America during this period. As a significant high
center near the Gulf of Alaska continues to expand and build,
a deep mid-level low is forecast to develop within the base of
larger-scale troughing digging into the Pacific Northwest late
Friday through Friday night.
Downstream of the low, mid-level ridging may build across the
northern Rockies into the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity,
and a closed mid-level low initially over the Southwest likely will
accelerate northeastward. Models indicate that the increasingly
deformed remnants of the low will be forced through broader-scale
anticyclonic flow, around the northwestern periphery of an
increasingly prominent subtropical high (centered over the southern
Gulf of Mexico).
The subtropical ridge may build northward through much of the Gulf
Coast states by 12Z Saturday, with ridging also building in the
mid-latitude westerlies to the north, across the middle Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. As this proceeds, a broad and deep lower/mid
tropospheric cyclone, within a separate branch of westerlies to
the north, is expected to progress fairly rapidly eastward, east
of the Great Lakes region through Quebec and parts of the Northeast.
A cold front trailing the Canadian cyclone is forecast to advance
east of the Appalachians and off the northern and middle Atlantic
coast, while stalling and perhaps retreating northward across parts
of the Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains.
At the same time, a more substantive southerly return flow may
develop across the lower Rio Grande Valley, and southern into
central Plains, leading to moistening and destabilization above
the retreating front.
...Southern Plains... Forcing for ascent associated with the
impulse emerging from the Southwest still appears likely to remain
focused to the cool side of the frontal zone, which could advance
through much of central Texas and the Texas South Plains, before
beginning to shift back to the north. Destabilization and increasing
large-scale forcing for ascent above the cool surface-based air
may become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorm development
across parts of the southern Texas Panhandle and south Plains into
southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas Friday evening. Some of
this may be capable of producing severe hail.
South of the front, warm mid-level temperatures across much of
central and southern Texas probably will inhibit potential for
boundary-layer based convective development. However, near the
higher terrain of southwest Texas through southeast New Mexico,
surface heating, and at least weak cooling aloft may support mixed
layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Friday afternoon.
As inhibition weakens, the initiation of scattered thunderstorm
activity seems probable, in the presence of strong deep layer shear
supportive of supercells (beneath 50-70+ kt southwesterly 500 mb
flow). This will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, locally
strong surface gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, particularly
in the vicinity of the intersecting surface front and dryline,
west of Midland.
..Kerr.. 03/12/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A rather potent shortwave trough will impact portions
of the mid-Mississippi into the Ohio River Valleys today. In the
Southwest, a mid-level low will slowly propagate eastward with
shortwave ridging occurring across the southern Plains. A cold front
will swing through the Midwest, arcing southwestward through the
Ozarks and into the southern High Plains. In the West, high pressure
will build into the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin.
A coastal surface trough forming along the West Coast into central
California will promote northerly/northwesterly winds of around 15
mph in the northern Sacramento Valley. RH will fall to around 20%.
With flow aloft not being overly strong, winds may not meet elevated
thresholds except on a local basis. As such, no elevated area will
be added this outlook.
..Wendt.. 03/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will move through the
Northeast on D2/Friday. An associated surface cyclone will move
northeast through Ontario/Quebec, bringing a cold front through the
East Coast. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will develop in
portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Surface winds will be aided in part
by stronger flow aloft mixing to the surface as conditions behind
the front should remain relatively clear. Winds of 10-20 mph are
with RH of 25-30% may occur. The main source of uncertainty will
the expected precipitation along the front on Thursday. Guidance
continues show a relative minimum of QPF in northern/central
Virginia. Locally elevated conditions would be favored in this
zone along the periphery of strong mid-level winds, particularly
if precipitation is observed to be less than forecast.
..Wendt.. 03/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Platonic Shadow:
A nonsexual friendship with a member of the opposite sex.
-- Douglas Coupland, "Generation X: Tales for an Accelerated
Culture"
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