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LU9DCE > ALERT 13.03.20 07:04z 153 Lines 8387 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11327_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 03
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 200313/0700Z 11327@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible near the
higher terrain of southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico into
the Texas South Plains vicinity this afternoon and evening.
...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward
across the Four Corners region today as southwest mid-level
flow remains across the southern High Plains. At the surface,
a trough with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, will deepen across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Low-level convergence and
instability will increase during the day resulting in a corridor
favorable for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are first
expected to develop in southeast New Mexico on the northern end
of the instability corridor in the early afternoon. Large-scale
ascent will increase across the southern High Plains resulting
in a gradual expansion of convective coverage along the surface
trough this afternoon. Thunderstorms are then forecast to move
east-northeastward across west Texas this evening and into the Red
River Valley during the overnight period.
Model forecasts differ on how much instability will develop along
the surface trough. While the NAM shows weaker instability, RAP
forecast soundings in west Texas are more aggressive in developing
moderate instability. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range which will support strong updrafts. RAP Forecast soundings
also show 0-6 km shear reaching the 60 to 70 kt m2/s2 range with
700 to 500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km. This environment would
be favorable for supercells with large hail. Directional shear in
the low-levels with speed shear in the mid-levels will contribute
to enough shear for tornado development as well. The greatest
potential for an isolated tornado threat would be in far southeast
New Mexico and far West Texas where the combination of instability
and shear is forecast to be most favorable. Thunderstorms will move
east-northeastward across West Texas this evening where instability
should be considerably weaker. As a result, wind damage and hail
are expected to become the primary threats.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 03/13/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across
the contiguous United States on Saturday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A low-amplitude shortwave trough
is forecast to de-amplify as it moves from the southern/central
Plains to the mid MS Valley and eventually the OH Valley through
Saturday night. In the wake of this shortwave trough, large-scale
upper ridging should become prominent over much of the Plains. At
the surface, a weak low initially near the OK/TX border should
develop slowly east-northeastward towards the Mid-South by Saturday
evening. A front is forecast to extend eastward from this surface
low across the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. This front may make
some modest northward progress across AR and vicinity through
Saturday afternoon.
Mainly elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
across parts of the southern/central Plains. The ascent associated
with the shortwave trough will shift northeastward and away from the
southern Plains and lower MS Valley through the day. The potential
for surface-based thunderstorms occurring along/south of the front
across the ArkLaTex and vicinity appears rather uncertain Saturday
afternoon, as large-scale forcing appears nebulous/weak. There is
also above-average uncertainty in latest model guidance regarding
the northward extent of the warm sector. Although there may be a
conditional severe threat for parts of the ArkLaTex and vicinity
given the forecast thermodynamic and kinematic environment, there
is too much uncertainty to include any severe probabilities at
this time.
Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning across portions of the southern High Plains in
a low-level warm advection regime. Generally weak instability should
limit the hail threat with any elevated storms that can develop in
this environment. Other storms may also develop across parts of the
OR and northern CA Coast as an upper low develops slowly southward
over these areas through the period.
..Gleason.. 03/13/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak will move into the
Northeast today. At the surface, a cold front will move across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front will bring wetting rain
to most of the region, however, a relative minimum is expected in
eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey where rain is expected to be
lighter with the potential for some areas to remain dry. Any areas
which see minimal precipitation in this region may see some slightly
elevated fire weather conditions behind the front this afternoon
as winds increase to 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity in the 25
to 35 percent range.
In the west, an amplifying mid-level trough will approach the
northern California coast with significant cyclogenesis expected in
eastern Oregon. The combination of some stronger mid-level flow and a
strengthening pressure gradient will lead to some gusty winds across
northwest Nevada this afternoon. In addition, relative humidity is
expected to be in the 15 to 25 percent range. Therefore, elevated
fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon hours.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will remain mostly stationary
off the CA/OR coast on Saturday with a surface low pressure center
located in the Great Basin. Moderate mid-level westerly flow across
the Sierra will likely lead to some downslope flow in portions of
western Nevada during the afternoon Saturday. Winds of 20 to 30 mph
are expected in the lee of the Sierra. Some dry/warmer conditions may
be possible in the Reno area with some elevated conditions possible,
but temperatures may be on the cool side, and the area of concern
is very small at this time. Therefore, no elevated area was added
with this outlook.
Some dry and breezy conditions may be possible in eastern New
Mexico, but conditions are forecast to only be marginally elevated.
In addition, some rainfall has fallen and will continue to fall
across portions of this region. Therefore, no elevated area is
warranted.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Dear Mister Language Person: What is the purpose of the apostrophe?
Answer: The apostrophe is used mainly in hand-lettered small business signs
to alert the reader than an "S" is coming up at the end of a word, as in:
WE DO NOT EXCEPT PERSONAL CHECK'S, or: NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ITEM'S.
Another important grammar concept to bear in mind when creating hand- lettered
small-business signs is that you should put quotation marks around random
words for decoration, as in "TRY" OUR HOT DOG'S, or even TRY "OUR" HOT DOG'S.
-- Dave Barry, "Tips for Writer's"
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