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LU9DCE > ALERT 14.03.20 08:02z 115 Lines 6090 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11378_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 03
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<I0BLC<GB7CIP<N7HPX<LU9DCE
Sent: 200314/0700Z 11378@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.19
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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CYGWIN - LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214
AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across
the contiguous United States on Saturday.
...Discussion...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a short-wave trough over
the southern Rockies ejecting northeast toward the central Plains.
This feature is forecast to flatten the low-latitude upper ridge
as it translates across the Mid-MS Valley before approaching the
Middle Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. In response to
this feature, LLJ will veer across OK by the start of the period
then progress into the TN Valley where it should encourage bouts of
convection along/north of a synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings
along this corridor exhibit poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy,
thus severe thunderstorms are not expected.
Farther southwest along the synoptic front that trails across
south-central TX into Coahuila, negligible large-scale forcing for
ascent will be noted. As a result, convective chances are predicated
on strong boundary-layer heating and orographic influences. With
strong heating forecast across the higher terrain of northern Mexico,
isolated thunderstorms could develop within a sheared environment
favorable for sustained rotating updrafts. Forecast soundings
suggest isolated supercells could develop southwest of DRT after
20z then shift east toward south-central TX. Several members of
the HREF suggest organized convection may spread into TX with some
severe threat. However, boundary-layer conditions will likely remain
fairly stable east of the Rio Grande and large-scale support will be
lacking. As a result, this should limit any severe threat, and for
these reasons will not introduce severe probs during the day1 period.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/14/2020
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST TX AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur Sunday across parts
of west Texas and far southeastern New Mexico.
...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... A closed upper
low is forecast to remain centered near the coast of northern CA on
Sunday. Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will persist
across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a
front should extend from the southern Plains eastward across the
lower MS and Southeast Sunday morning. This boundary should move
little through the day across TX, with modest low-level moistening
forecast across parts of west TX and far southeastern NM to the
south of the front.
Although large-scale ascent will probably remain rather nebulous,
guidance continues to suggest that a weak southern-stream
perturbation embedded within the southwesterly flow will move
over parts of west TX by early Sunday evening. Steep mid-level
lapse rates emanating from the higher terrain of northern Mexico,
diurnal heating, and some low-level moistening to south of the
surface front will support weak to moderate instability in a
narrow corridor across portions of west TX into far southeastern
NM. Low-level flow should stay rather modest through the day, but
enhanced flow at mid/upper levels will support strong effective
bulk shear, with isolated supercells possible. Any storm that can
form over the higher terrain of west TX by late Sunday afternoon
could produce both large hail and strong/gusty winds. Will maintain
Marginal Risk given the uncertainty regarding overall storm coverage.
..Gleason.. 03/14/2020
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will build over the central
CONUS this weekend with a large upper cyclone off the California
coast. Moist conditions will be present across most of the CONUS
which will limit the overall fire weather risk. The only exception
will be a small area of west central Nevada where downslope flow
will lead to dry and breezy conditions. Winds are expected to be
20 to 30 mph with relative humidity between 15 and 25 percent. The
primary fire weather concern will be in the lower valleys where
fuels are the most dry.
..Bentley.. 03/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will slowly drift southeastward
along the West Coast on Friday. Downslope flow/deep mixing will
lead to gusty winds across most of Nevada Sunday. Increased moisture
and cooling temperatures across the region will limit greater fire
weather concerns as relative humidity will likely be in the 25 to 40
percent range. Elsewhere in the CONUS, moist and/or cool conditions
will preclude a significant large-fire threat.
..Bentley.. 03/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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There are more dead people than living, and their numbers are increasing.
-- Eugene Ionesco
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