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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 05:26z 79 Lines 4042 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17603_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 31 01
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<LU4ECL<LU3DVN<LW2DQC<LU9DCE
Sent: 190131/0700Z 17603@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.18
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( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Wed Jan 30 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected mainly across the
southwestern U.S. and South Texas.
...Synopsis... A persistent eastern trough/western ridge synoptic
pattern has resulted in a relatively cold surface pattern across much
of the U.S. over the past few days, with any deep low-level moisture
confined to the Gulf of Mexico and areas south. Throughout today,
an expansive anticyclone centered over the Ohio Valley will coincide
with lee troughing across the High Plains, resulting in warm/moist
advection across portions of Texas. Showers and a few thunderstorms
should develop across this region as a weak mid-level wave approaches
central Texas during the day, providing lift amidst weakly buoyant
thermodynamic profiles. Farther west, a compact shortwave trough
will migrate southeastward from the central California coastline
toward the Lower Colorado River Valley and southern Arizona late
in the forecast period. Cooling aloft associated with the trough
will result in potential for a few lightning strikes along/ahead
of the path of the shortwave.
...Coastal areas of south Texas... Models indicate a general
increase in convection throughout the day within a warm advection
regime just ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. While
thermodynamic profiles will support lightning potential with this
activity, the deeper low-level moisture (and attendant stronger
instability) should remain over open waters, with only a very
narrow window for surface-based convective potential near Corpus
Cristi/Matagorda during the afternoon. Severe probabilities are
withheld given this scenario.
..Cook.. 01/31/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130
PM CST Wed Jan 30 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected along a corridor
from southern New Mexico to southern Louisiana.
...Discussion...
Notable mid-level speed max and associated short-wave trough will
track along the international border into the Big Bend region of
west TX by 02/00z. Exit region of this feature should contribute to
large-scale forcing for ascent that is expected to aid convective
potential within a steep mid-level lapse-rate environment. Latest
model guidance suggest TX coastal boundary will not advance inland
appreciably and moisture return to central TX will be less than
earlier expected. While isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop north of the jet, another area of potential lightning will
be associated with convection that develops along the nose of LLJ
across southern LA. In both cases forecast buoyancy appears too
weak to warrant severe probs.
Downstream across FL, deep westerly flow will maintain primary zone
of low-level convergence along the Atlantic Coast. Latest guidance
suggests a weak short-wave trough will approach the Peninsula late
in the period and this may influence convective development across
the eastern Peninsula.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Darrow.. 01/31/2019
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Excellent day for putting Slinkies on an escalator.
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