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LU9DCE > ALERT    04.02.19 05:27z 86 Lines 4301 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 17648_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 01 02
Path: HB9ON<IW0QNL<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<I0OJJ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 190201/0700Z @:LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM #:17648 LinBPQ6.0.18

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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135
PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible along a
corridor from southern New Mexico to southern Louisiana, and along
the east coast of Florida today.
...DISCUSSION...  An upper-level trough will move across northern
Mexico today and into the southern Plains tonight. Large-scale
ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the trough
will make thunderstorm development possible from southeast Arizona
into southern New Mexico and west Texas today. Further east, enough
low-level moisture should be in place from central and north Texas
extending southeastward to the Louisiana Gulf Coast for isolated
thunderstorms development today into tonight. Instability should be
too weak for a severe threat. A few non-severe thunderstorms will
also be possible across the eastern Florida Peninsula associated
with a subtle surface trough.
..Broyles/Nauslar.. 02/01/2019
 SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142
PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...  Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Gulf
States and over portions of California.
...Synopsis...  A couple of mid-level shortwave troughs will focus an
isolated thunderstorm risk on Saturday.  A low-amplitude impulse will
move from TX to the northeast Gulf Coast states.  Stunted moisture
return will limit instability but pockets of weak buoyancy and a few
thunderstorms are possible.  Farther west, a vigorous disturbance
will move from the northern CA coast into the western Great Basin.
Steep lapse rates associated with the mid-level cold pocket may
foster conditions supportive of sporadic thunder occurrence with
weak convection.  Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...  Tornado:  <2%     - None Wind:     <5%
- None Hail:     <5%     - None
..Smith.. 02/01/2019
 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...  A weak upper-level shortwave trough will
traverse over the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday
while a vigorous upper-level trough approaches the California
Coast. Generally, quiescent/light westerly flow will exist across the
Intermountain West/Midwest under upper-level ridging with surface lee
troughing expected to develop across the High Plains. Relatively weak
surface pressure gradients and modest boundary layer flow should keep
wind speeds below critical thresholds across the southern/central
High Plains. Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions
of the central/southern High Plains, but surface winds should remain
around 10-15 mph with RH values 10-20%. Overall, the fire weather
threat will be minimal across the CONUS on Friday.
..Nauslar.. 02/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Lady Nancy Astor:
	"Winston, if you were my husband, I'd put poison in your coffee."
Winston Churchill:
	"Nancy, if you were my wife, I'd drink it."

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