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LU9DCE > ALERT 04.02.19 19:08z 93 Lines 4744 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18094_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<
LU9DCE
Sent: 190204/1907Z 18094@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@ZOHO.COM
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019
AM CST Mon Feb 04 2019
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not expected in the
contiguous U.S. through tonight.
...Northern/central California and the Great Basin... A lead
shortwave trough will dampen as it steadily progresses eastward over
NV/UT this afternoon, while a prominent upstream closed upper low
digs southward just off the OR coast today and reaches northern CA
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are most probable in the Central
Valley during the afternoon/early evening. Sporadic lightning
strikes are also possible along the northern CA coast through the
period, as well as in the Great Basin during the afternoon and
early evening.
...Midwest including Michigan/Indiana/Ohio... Forcing for ascent
and semi-steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying an eastward-moving
shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will account for a relatively
low (near 10 percent) thunderstorm potential across the region
this afternoon.
...Southeast Louisiana... Although much of the convection should
be focused offshore, scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
are expected in vicinity of a maritime-related warm front along
the coast.
..Guyer/Bunting.. 02/04/2019
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110
AM CST Mon Feb 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Only general thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys.
...Synopsis... An upper trough will move east across the Great Basin
with a 80-90 kt midlevel speed max from southern CA into AZ. Ahead
of this trough, a broad area of southwest flow aloft will exist over
the Plains and into the Northeast. At the surface, low pressure
will develop over CO with a high just off the coastal Southeast.
Southerly surface winds will bring 60s F dewpoints northward across
TX and the lower MS Valley, with near 60 F dewpoints approaching
the lower OH Valley by 12Z Wednesday.
Increasing southwesterly flow just off the surface will result in
modest warm advection lift and moistening throughout the period
across OK, AR, MO, and eastern KS and toward the lower OH Valley
overnight. Elevated instability will support scattered thunderstorms,
and a few storms may contain very small hail. However, severe
weather is unlikely.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Jewell.. 02/04/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Mon Feb 04 2019
Valid 041700Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes. See previous discussion for forecast details.
..Bentley.. 02/04/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Feb 04 2019/
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue to impact the
West Coast and move onshore on Monday with the shortwave trough that
previously moved through the western CONUS tracking eastward across
the Great Lakes. There will be a relative minimum of mid-level flow
across the Plains within the larger swath of enhanced mid-level
flow stretching from California into the Northeast. Surface lee
troughing will develop again across the central/southern High Plains,
but should be less intense than on Sunday.
Locally elevated conditions may develop across portions of eastern
Colorado, especially southeast Colorado, where surface pressure
falls from lee troughing should be greatest. However, temperatures
will be about 5-10 F degrees cooler than on Sunday and stronger
mid-level flow does not reach the Rockies/High Plains until Monday
late afternoon/evening. Even without widespread elevated conditions,
dry/breezy conditions will continue to cure fine fuels across the
central/southern High Plains.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Don't make a big deal out of everything; just deal with everything.
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