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LW3DBH > ALERT 25.04.20 02:35z 233 Lines 11143 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 62832_LW3DBH
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 24 04
Path: HB9ON<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<F3KT<CX2SA<ED1ZAC<
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Sent: 200425/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:62832 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:62832_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 147 SEVERE TSTM AR LA 250130Z - 250700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 PM CDT Fri
Apr 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Arkansas Northern
Louisiana
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 830 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65
mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms from northwest
Arkansas through northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana will spread
east tonight. The risk for mainly damaging winds and large hail
should continue through the rest of this evening, before diminishing
by early morning.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles west northwest
of Batesville AR to 50 miles south southwest of Monroe LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 146...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Grams
WW 146 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 242150Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest
Louisiana Southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very
large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging
winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several supercells are expected to develop across northeast
Texas and southeast Oklahoma, spreading east into parts of southwest
Arkansas and northwest Louisiana later this evening. A couple of
these supercells may become long-tracked and intense, particularly
across northeast Texas.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 60 miles north of De Queen AR to 50
miles south southeast of Tyler TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29040.
...Grams
WW 145 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 242045Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM CDT Fri
Apr 24 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northwest
Arkansas Northeast and east central Oklahoma
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two
possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop near the Kansas
border and spread east-southeastward into northeast Oklahoma this
evening, and additional storms will also form farther south across
eastern Oklahoma. A mix of multicell clusters/line segments
is expected across northeast Oklahoma, while supercells will be
possible closer to Interstate 40. Large hail and damaging gusts
will be the primary threats, though a tornado cannot be ruled out
across the southern part of the watch area.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
55 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast
of Bartlesville OK to 45 miles southeast of Mcalester OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.
...Thompson
WW 0147 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0147 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW TYR TO
20 NNW GGG TO 20 SSE MLC.
..GOSS..04/25/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 146
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC019-027-051-057-059-061-073-081-091-097-099-109-113-127-133-
250240-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK COLUMBIA GARLAND HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA PIKE POLK
SCOTT SEVIER
LAC015-017-031-119-250240-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BOSSIER CADDO DE SOTO WEBSTER
OKC089-127-250240-
OK
WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MLC TO
30 W RKR TO 20 WNW FSM TO 15 W FYV TO 25 N FYV TO 20 SSW UMN.
..WENDT..04/25/20
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC015-033-047-087-131-143-250240-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN MADISON
SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON
OKC077-079-135-250240-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LATIMER LE FLORE SEQUOYAH
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0472 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 146... FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020
Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into
the Arklatex
Concerning...Tornado Watch 146...
Valid 250002Z - 250200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 146 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe/tornado threat is increasing, particularly across
northern parts of the watch in the short term.
DISCUSSION...Storms have been slow to develop across the WW area,
with entrainment issues apparent per visible satellite imagery.
However, robust storm development is now underway near the Red
River west/northwest of Paris TX. Here, a mesolow is analyzed in
the Johnston County OK vicinity along the advancing surface front,
with low-level flow backed across the valley area to the east.
Several deep/rotating updrafts are rapidly evolving in this area,
with a tornado recently reported near Paris, along with 2" hail.
Very large hail is expected across northern parts of the watch
over the next 1-2 hours, along with locally damaging winds and
continued tornado potential, as these storms likely continue/spread
east-southeastward with time.
Other storm development is still expected southward -- both near
and ahead of the front -- over the next hour or so, per consistent
CAM guidance and persistent, congested cumulus per visible imagery.
All-hazard severe risk would exist with any storms which develop.
..Goss.. 04/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33749596 34909554 34779352 34179301 32669311 31659424
31409643 31969666 33749596
33919589 34129577 33889479 33719435 33209482 33229541 33599602
33919589
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745
PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020
Valid 250100Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO ADJACENT REGIONS OF AR/LA...
...SUMMARY... Severe hail, strong wind gusts, and a threat
for tornadoes continues this evening across parts of eastern
Oklahoma/Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana.
...01z Update...
Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough ejecting across the southern Plains. High-level diffluent flow
downstream of this feature across the Arklatex region is proving
favorable for venting aloft and convection is now growing upscale
ahead of the short wave. Several severe supercells have emerged along
the Red River from southeastern OK into northeast TX and very large
hail and tornadoes have recently been reported. 00z sounding from FWD
exhibited steep low-midlevel lapse rates within a post-frontal air
mass and this plume extends into northeast TX immediately ahead of
the supercell cluster. It appears this activity will spread/develop
east in line with earlier outlook forecasts and CAMs guidance.
Farther south along the front, updrafts are slowly deepening along
the front from Leon into Robertson Counties. This activity will be
near the southern end of organized severe, but a more southeastward
movement could allow these storms to spread into the northern part
of HGX CWA.
..Darrow.. 04/25/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
From Sharp minds come... pointed heads.
-- Bryan Sparrowhawk
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