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LW3DBH > ALERT 03.05.20 02:25z 77 Lines 3833 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 63931_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 02 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<CX2SA<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200503/0210Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:63931 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:63931_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
_ __ _______ ____ ____ _ _
| |\ \ / /___ /| _ \| __ )| | | | BBS
| | \ \ /\ / / |_ \| | | | _ \| |_| | MORENO
| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
|_____\_/\_/ |____/|____/|____/|_| |_|
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MD 0513 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0513 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020
Areas affected...Parts of northeast Missouri into central Illinois
and Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030127Z - 030330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few elevated storms may become strong enough to support
a couple damaging gusts through the evening into the overnight
hours. The isolated, brief nature of the wind threat suggests a WW
issuance is not currently warranted.
DISCUSSION...A small 700 mb impulse, located across central MO,
is tracking east-northeastward, providing adequate ascent for
relatively moist 700 mb air parcels to reach their LFCs resulting
in recent convective initiation across the MO/IL border. As the
impulse continues to progress east, a gradual increase in convection
is expected, as supported by the latest high-resolution guidance,
including the HRRR. The 00Z ILX sounding depicts a relatively dry
sfc-800 mb layer, supportive of enough evaporative cooling to foster
downward momentum transport, perhaps to the extent where damaging
wind gusts may be observed on occasion. As the evening progresses,
boundary layer T/Td spreads will decrease to an extent, especially
as convection approaches a relative moist-axis, located around 850
mb per 00Z Mesoanalysis. Diabatic cooling may slow somewhat with the
low-level moisture increase, with buoyancy increasing after dark
to support slightly stronger updrafts still capable of producing
a damaging gust or two.
Given the sparse nature of the damaging wind threat, a WW issuance
is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri.. 05/03/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39749193 39979205 40299207 40569165 40529019 40428704
40348613 39788590 39178649 39218819 39399010 39559165 39749193
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742
PM CDT Sat May 02 2020
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEY REGION...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms remain possible this evening.
...01z Update...
Buoyancy is fairly limited across the CONUS this evening, though
boundary-layer moisture is beginning to advance north across the
southern Plains ahead of a front that is sagging into northwest OK.
Even so, will maintain low severe probs across portions of northeast
CO where cool, weak upslope flow continues to aid weak convection
across this region. A few robust storms may also linger for a few
hours across portions of the northern Rockies; however, this activity
has evolved within a low-quality air mass, moisture-wise. Over the
next few hours, convection is expected to gradually expand along a
corridor from central MO into western OH. This activity may be a bit
elevated along the cool side of an advancing front, but nonetheless,
a few wind gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible.
..Darrow.. 05/03/2020
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Dreams are free, but you get soaked on the connect time.
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