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LU9DCE > ALERT 03.02.19 16:11z 170 Lines 9179 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15494_LU9DCE
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 31 12
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Sent: 181231/0700Z 15494@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.17
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
LU9DCE@GMX.COM
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MD 1745 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WYOMING...EXTREME WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1745 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018
Areas affected...Southeast Montana...portions of northern
Wyoming...extreme western South Dakota
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 310348Z - 310845Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall (up to 1 in/hr rates in the lower terrain
and 2 in/hr rates in the higher elevations) is expected for at
least the next few hours. With strong sustained northwesterly winds
accompanying the cold front, a few brief instances of blizzard
conditions cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A relatively strong, deep cold front (extending up
to 700 mb) is rapidly progressing across portions of the northern
Rockies, providing strong low-level convergence and deep-layer
CAA (through at least 850 mb) across complex terrain. Frontal
convergence, combined with orographic lift, will help to induce
vigorous rising motion through a near-saturated 700 mb layer, and
a very deep (1000-1500 m) dendritic-growth zone, promoting very
efficient dendrite production and associated snowfall accumulations.
Up to 1 in/hr snowfall rates are likely in the lower terrain,
but higher rates (2 in/hr) may be common in the higher terrain,
where upslope flow and subsequent orographic lift may enhance
snowfall production.
In addition, strong northwesterly surface winds are accompanying the
cold front, with up to 30 knot sustained winds (with higher gusts)
recently observed by the Johnson City/Buffalo WY ASOS. As such,
a few instances of blizzard conditions may be observed over the
next few hours as the cold front passes.
..Squitieri.. 12/31/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43630715 44560855 45240917 45740906 45980870 46050784
45910624 45710526 45470422 45250360 44720326 44100324 43560386
43390488 43400580 43630715
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126
PM CST Sun Dec 30 2018
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA...TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, including a potential
for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, will be possible
today from parts of central Mississippi and northwest Alabama
north-northeastward into Tennessee and southern Kentucky.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States/Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys... An upper-level trough will move quickly
northeastward from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi
Valley today. A surface low will gradually deepen ahead of the
upper-level trough with a surface trough extending southward into
the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the surface trough, moisture
advection will continue as a corridor of low-level moisture sets up
across Mississippi and western Tennessee. Convection is forecast
to develop along and to the east of the surface trough late this
morning into the afternoon, spreading eastward across Mississippi
and western Tennessee. Although instability should remain weak
along the moist corridor, a 60-70 kt low-level jet will create
strong low-level shear profiles. Forecast soundings from east of
Jackson, MS north-northeastward to near Nashville, TN early this
afternoon show 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 350 to 500
m2/s2 range along with 0-6 km shear of 65-75 kt. This impressive
shear environment will support low-topped fast-moving supercells
capable of producing a few tornadoes.
The greatest tornado threat should occur with the stronger discrete
cells that develop near the axis of the low-level jet. These
storms will also have a wind-damage threat. Later in the afternoon,
increasing low-level convergence should aide the development of a
line of storms along the surface-trough. This line should have a
wind-damage and isolated tornado threat as it moves eastward across
middle Tennessee, Mississippi and into western and central Alabama
this afternoon.
Further north across west-central Kentucky into far southern Indiana,
forecast soundings show very weak instability this afternoon. This
will likely minimize the tornado threat across most of the Ohio
Valley. Wind damage will still be possible with the greatest threat
from far southern Kentucky southward into middle Tennessee, where
forcing associated with the low-level jet and upper-level trough
will aide the intensity of a fine convective line.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 12/31/2018
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208
AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... No severe storms are expected across the continental
United States on Tuesday.
...Central through east Texas...
A broad fetch of southwesterly winds aloft will exist downstream from
another in a series of positive-tilt upper troughs forecast to move
slowly through the southwest U.S. Tuesday. Early in the day a cold
front will extend from the Carolinas southwestward into the northwest
Gulf where the boundary will likely stall or retreat northward to
near the TX coast by the end of the period. Meanwhile a large area
of continental polar high pressure will build southward through
the southern Plains reinforcing the southwest to northeast oriented
baroclinic zone. A low-level jet is forecast to strengthen across
southeast TX and LA Tuesday night promoting weak destabilization
above the surface with a shallow layer of 200-300 J/kg MUCAPE. This
process will augment isentropic ascent and foster the development of
showers within the baroclinic zone north of the surface front. For
the most part it appears that the convective layer will be too
weak and shallow for a more robust thunderstorm threat, but a few
lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, mainly over a portion of
central through east TX later Tuesday night.
...Eastern Carolinas through southern Georgia and the Florida
Panhandle...
While a few showers may linger in vicinity of a cold front from
the eastern Carolinas into southern GA during a portion of the
day, the deeper forcing for ascent will have moved well north
of this region. Moreover, thermodynamic profiles with very weak
lapse rates, presence of modest mid-level inversions and limited
instability should preclude a threat for thunderstorms.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Dial.. 12/31/2018
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Mon Dec 31 2018
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough across the
western CONUS will continue to move southeast towards the Four
Corners region, with a 500 mb open wave rapidly moving across the
central/eastern CONUS during the day. At the surface, a rapidly
intensifying/eastward propagating cyclone will move across the
eastern third of the U.S, with a strong cold front and associated
high pressure surging across much of the central/western CONUS.
...Southern California... The southwestern extent of the
synoptic-scale high pressure will stall across the southern Great
Basin, reinforcing a pressure gradient across the area, with offshore
flow expected for much of the period. During the early afternoon
hours, channeled flow in terrain favoring areas between the Santa
Ynez and Santa Ana mountain ranges is expected to increase. With 20+
mph sustained northeasterly winds amidst 20% RH and marginally dry
fuels, some potential exists for fire spread (despite overall cooler
temperatures), hence the maintenance of an elevated risk across the
area. Latest high resolution guidance suggests that isolated showers
will be most likely across Riverside/San Diego Counties, avoiding the
elevated delineation overall. Still, any change in the precipitation
forecast could result in the altering of the elevated delineation. As
such, trends in precipitation will continue to be monitored.
..Squitieri.. 12/31/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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Moneda ahorrada, moneda ganada.
-- Refran.
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