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LU9DCE > ALERT 06.02.19 07:13z 159 Lines 9011 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 06 02
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@ZOHO.COM
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MD 0073 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CST Tue Feb 05 2019
Areas affected...Central/southern Michigan
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 060254Z - 060900Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue to spread eastward
across southern/central Michigan tonight with snow mixing in along
northern portions of the MCD in central Michigan.
DISCUSSION...A shortwave upper-level trough continues to track
northeast over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening
spreading ascent across the region. Bright banding and intermixed
correlation coefficient values indicate freezing rain and sleet are
developing across northern Illinois/southeast Wisconsin/southern
Lake Michigan amid warm air advection and isentropic lift associated
with this shortwave trough. Lift is currently strongest over southern
Lake Michigan/vicinity and this should spread east-northeast across
central Michigan in the coming hours.
Precipitation rates of 0.05-0.25" are expected for winter mixed
precipitation and snow may mix in, but the warm nose should stay
in place overnight across much of southern/central Michigan with
warm air advection continuing between 925 mb and 700 mb. Surface
temperatures across portions of far southern Michigan/far northern
Indiana are at/just above freezing, but wet bulbing should lower
these temperatures to at/below freezing. Convective elements may
appear tonight with mid-level lapse rates steepening as the colder
air aloft arrives with the core of the shortwave trough. As a result,
CG lightning is possible across southern Michigan/northern Indiana.
..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/06/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42618702 43448691 43748669 43958624 44148502 44178368
44138307 43968274 43328247 42718253 41958326 41818354 41788422
41788490 41798565 41788616 41848662 42028694 42438704 42618702
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136
PM CST Tue Feb 05 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... A couple of severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday
afternoon, but should become more probable after dark from the
southern Plains into parts of the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis... Broad upper trough currently covering much of
the western CONUS is expected to become more progressive today,
moving from its early period position over the Intermountain West
into the Plains by 12Z Thursday. Southwesterly flow aloft from the
Southwest through the central and southern Plains which has been
in place for the past two days will persist another day today,
strengthening with the approach of the upper trough. Guidance is
in good agreement that 500 mb wind speeds will exceed 100 kt after
00Z from the southern High Plains through the central Plains as an
embedded shortwave trough rounds the base of the upper trough and
ejects through the central/southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms, including the potential for severe storms, are
expected to evolve in two fairly distinct regimes. The first is from
this afternoon through the evening within the warm conveyor from
eastern OK into the mid MS/lower OH Valleys. The second is later
tonight primary across the southern Plains along the cold front.
... Eastern OK into the mid MS/lower OH Valley this afternoon through
this evening... Stationary front currently extending from a surface
low centered near SPS northeastward into northwest AR and then
east-northeastward into central KY is expected to remain largely
in place throughout the first half of the period. Strengthening
mid-level flow into this boundary as well as the likelihood
for one or more embedded, low-amplitude shortwave troughs leads
to the expectation for increased thunderstorm coverage during
the early afternoon. The strongest storms will likely develop
over south-central/eastern OK where instability will be a bit
greater. Mid-level winds will be strong, supporting a quick storm
motion (cloud-layer mean wind will be over 55 kt) and robust
vertical shear (0-6 km bulk shear near 65-70 kt). Potential for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado exists as
these storms interact with the warm front, which will beginning
moving slowly northward during this time. Some marginal severe
hail is also possible. Primary limiting factor is instability,
which will be tempered by as a result of widespread cloudiness and
stunted daytime heating.
...North TX/Central OK into western AR overnight... Much of this
region is expected to be free of deep convection from the late
afternoon through the evening. However, the overall evolution of
the upper trough, and the progression of embedded shortwave trough
in particular, will encourage a eastward/southeastward surge of
a strong cold front across the southern Plains. Air mass ahead
of the cold will have stabilized somewhat in the wake of earlier
storms but strong forcing for ascent combined with the remaining
marginal instability (supported primarily by dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s) is expected to result in the development of a convective
line. Vertical shear is more than supportive of storm organization
but the fast motion of the front (and resultant undercutting) and
limited instability cast uncertainty towards just how organized
the line can become. Even with this uncertainty, potential for
strong wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes is high enough to
merit slight-risk-equivalent tornado and wind probabilities from
north-central TX into northwest AR.
..Mosier/Nauslar.. 02/06/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Wed Feb 06 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE/VICINITY...
...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue moving
eastward over the Intermountain West and out over the Plains
today. The polar and subtropical streams will merge over the
Southwest/southern High Plains creating strong mid-level flow
of 60-90 knots over the southern/central Rockies/Plains. Strong
cross-mountain flow will result in downslope winds and lee
troughing, which will aid in falling surface pressures associated
with cyclogenesis across the central/southern High Plains.
Critical conditions are likely to develop across portions of the
Texas Panhandle and possibly into far eastern New Mexico and portions
of the Oklahoma Panhandle. Sustained southwest surface winds of 25-35
mph with gusts of 50+ mph are likely to overlap RH values of 12-20%
within the critical area. Model guidance shows very isolated areas of
critical RH (< 15%), but given the strength of the forecast winds,
downslope warming/drying should reduce RH values slightly lower
than what the models are depicting. Additionally, the very strong
winds and dry fuels (10-hour dead fuel moisture values of 5-10%)
should compensate for marginally critical RH resulting in critical
conditions.
Elevated conditions (west/southwest sustained surface winds of 15-30
mph, RH values of 15-25%) will develop across a broad swath of the
central/southern High Plains and into far West Texas today. There
will likely be a relative minimum of elevated conditions across the
Guadalupe Mountains/vicinity where precipitation may fall during
the morning. A cold front will slide southward across the High
Plains during the evening as the surface low tracks southeast from
southeast Colorado into Oklahoma.
..Nauslar.. 02/06/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Old MacLinus had a stack/l-i-n-u-x/and on this stack he had a trace/l-i-n-u-x
with an Oops-Oops here and an Oops-Oops there here an Oops, there an Oops,
everywhere an Oops-Oops.
-- tjimenez@site.gmu.edu, linux.dev.kernel
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