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LW3DBH > ALERT 05.05.20 02:23z 294 Lines 14133 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 64099_LW3DBH
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 04 05
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Sent: 200505/0212Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:64099 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:64099_LW
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To : ALERT@WW
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WW 167 SEVERE TSTM TX 050110Z - 050400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 810 PM CDT Mon
May 4 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of A small part of north
Texas
* Effective this Monday evening from 810 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms in southern Oklahoma will
continue to develop southward across the Red River, with a continued
threat for large hail and isolated damaging gusts, prior to the
storms weakening a little later tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest
of Sherman TX to 50 miles east southeast of Sherman TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165...WW
166...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
34020.
...Thompson
WW 166 SEVERE TSTM AL GA NC TN 042340Z - 050500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Mon
May 4 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northern Alabama
North Georgia Extreme southwestern North Carolina Much of middle
and southeast Tennessee
* Effective this Monday night from 640 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with
isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail
and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple storm clusters and supercells in western
Tennessee will likely undergo some upscale growth through cell
mergers/interactions the next few hours, with bow echo development
possible. The initial supercells will pose a threat for large hail,
but damaging winds will become the more substantial threat in time.
A tornado or two with embedded circulations/mesovortices will also
be possible, mainly across middle Tennessee this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest
of Nashville TN to 65 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29045.
...Thompson
WW 165 SEVERE TSTM OK 042140Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Mon
May 4 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of central and
south central Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development appears to be underway along
a cold front moving southeastward into central Oklahoma. The storm
environment will favor a mix of line segments and supercells, with
a tendency for storms to back-build southwestward along the front
into south central Oklahoma this evening. Any embedded supercells
will pose a threat for very large hail, while damaging winds will
be possible as storms grow upscale this evening into a more linear
structure. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, mainly in the
early phase of the most intense developing storms on the front.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south
of Chickasha OK to 50 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32020.
...Thompson
WW 163 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 041935Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple
intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail expected with
scattered very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this
afternoon along and ahead of a cold front surging southward into
the watch area. Supercells capable of very large hail and a few
tornadoes are possible. A strong tornado or two is also possible
through the evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Tulsa OK to 30
miles north of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 161...WW 162...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 28035.
...Hart
WW 0167 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0167 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0166 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 166
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE MKL TO
20 SW BNA TO 40 WNW CSV.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0538
..SQUITIERI..05/05/20
ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...MRX...OHX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 166
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC049-071-077-083-089-050240-
AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DEKALB JACKSON LAUDERDALE LIMESTONE
MADISON
GAC047-055-083-085-111-115-123-129-187-213-227-281-291-295-311-
313-050240-
GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CATOOSA CHATTOOGA DADE DAWSON
FANNIN FLOYD GILMER GORDON
LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS TOWNS UNION
WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD
WW 0165 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0165 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE UOX TO
MKL TO 50 ENE MKL.
..SQUITIERI..05/05/20
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC003-141-050140-
MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN TISHOMINGO
TNC023-039-069-071-077-109-113-050140-
TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESTER DECATUR HARDEMAN HARDIN
HENDERSON MCNAIRY MADISON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0163 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
MD 0538 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166... FOR PORTIONS
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0538 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Areas affected...Portions of Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama
and northern Georgia
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166...
Valid 050116Z - 050245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 166
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across WW 0166. Large hail and
damaging gusts are the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is ongoing across southern parts
of Middle TN, with a history of large hail up to golfball size
and occasional damaging wind gusts. Mid-level flow paralleling
MCS motion remains strong (60+ knots at 500 mb), with an axis of
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE residing downstream of the MCS. As such, the
severe threat is expected to continue for at least a few more hours
across WW 0166, before gradually diminishing during the overnight
hours, as supported by the latest high-resolution model guidance.
..Squitieri.. 05/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 35448894 36078776 36208648 35778489 35308389 34818366
34388378 34198473 34288593 35448894
MD 0537 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165... FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0537 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Areas affected...south-central Oklahoma into North Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...
Valid 050057Z - 050300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe potential continues across south-central Oklahoma/WW
165, and should gradually expand south of the Red River. New WW
may be required into North Texas.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of severe storms --
producing large hail and possibly locally damaging winds -- moving
southward across south-central Oklahoma. The storms are ongoing
near the advancing surface cold front, with convection backbuilding
southwestward along the front at the intersection of the front,
and a southwestward-moving outflow.
While the evening FWD (Fort Worth) RAOB reveals substantial capping
which -- combined with eventual boundary-layer stabilization should
limit temporal and spatial threat into North Texas, a small/new
Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the short term.
..Goss.. 05/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33089847 33669826 34349746 34699631 34389595 33169575
33089847
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750
PM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this
evening across eastern Oklahoma into north-central Texas. Scattered
severe storms will also spread across portions of Tennessee into
northeast Alabama and northern Georgia.
...01z Update...
Intense supercell that developed along the northeastern plume of
steep low-level lapse rates near the dry line over central OK has
propagated south-southeast and a cluster of hail-producing storms
will soon approach the Red River before dropping south into TX.
Other scattered severe storms linger over northeastern OK into
northwestern AR/southwestern MO. This activity, too, should begin
to propagate in a more southeasterly direction to take advantage
of higher buoyancy air mass.
Long-lived thunderstorm cluster, with an embedded MCV, has progressed
across southern MO into western TN. Strong/severe clusters have
recently organized along the southern flank of this MCS and robust
updrafts should progress across southern/middle TN over the next
few hours. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, along with
some hail with this organized cluster.
..Darrow.. 05/05/2020
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Having a wonderful wine, wish you were beer.
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