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LW3DBH > ALERT 08.05.20 02:26z 287 Lines 14699 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 05
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Sent: 200508/0212Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:64377 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:64377_LW
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To : ALERT@WW
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WW 172 SEVERE TSTM TX 080120Z - 080400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Thu
May 7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central Texas
* Effective this Thursday evening from 820 PM until 1100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Long-lived supercell with a history of very large hail
is expected to weaken as it moves from western north Texas into a
portion of north-central Texas. Until it decays, a risk exists for
large hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Mineral
Wells TX to 15 miles south southeast of Mineral Wells TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 30035.
...Grams
WW 171 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 080040Z - 080800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM CDT Thu
May 7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Western
and central Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 740 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or
two possible
SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop, initially across
southwest Kansas and then farther south across the northeast
Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. These severe storms
should consolidate into a broader MCS towards central Oklahoma
later tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Clinton
OK to 35 miles northwest of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30035.
...Grams
WW 170 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 072145Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 170 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Thu
May 7 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...A couple intense supercells will likely develop along
the portion of the Red River in the southeast Texas Panhandle
and spread east-southeast near the northwest Texas and southwest
Oklahoma border. Very large hail and isolated significant severe
wind are the main hazards.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest
of Clinton OK to 65 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 29035.
...Grams
WW 0172 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0172 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0171 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0171 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0170 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABI TO
50 W SPS TO 30 SW LTS TO 15 NNW CDS TO 40 NW CDS TO 25 ESE AMA.
..BENTLEY..05/08/20
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 170
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-031-033-055-057-065-075-141-080240-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM COMANCHE COTTON GREER
HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN
TXC009-023-077-087-129-179-483-485-487-080240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COLLINGSWORTH
DONLEY GRAY WHEELER WICHITA
WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 0551 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170... FOR NORTHWEST
AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020
Areas affected...Northwest and North-Central Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...
Valid 080105Z - 080230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast across northwest into
portions of north-central TX. Hail and damaging winds are expected.
DISCUSSION...Lone supercell that formed near CDS late this afternoon
has matured and turned southeast into Baylor/Wilbarger County
region. This storm has produced large-giant hail, in excess of 3
inches, along with strong winds. Over the next hour or so this
supercell will approach the southeastern corner of ww170 and
the main question is how far downstream severe convection will
propagate. 00z sounding from FWD was strongly capped, but warm
advection is increasing across the southern Plains. Latest WoFS
takes this storm across Young into Parker County by 03z before
appreciable weakening occurs. This forecast seems reasonable but
there is considerable uncertainty whether organized severe will
actually spread into the western portions of the Metroplex before
updraft weakening. Will continue to monitor for possible small ww
into north-central TX.
..Darrow.. 05/08/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34029878 33079749 32509816 33389913 33959927 34029878
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751
PM CDT Thu May 07 2020
Valid 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY... An evolving cluster of thunderstorms may pose a risk
for strong, potentially damaging wind gusts and severe hail across
parts of western and central Oklahoma late this evening into the
overnight hours.
...01Z Outlook Update.. Widely scattered storms which initiated
near the dryline this afternoon appear generally on the wane,
as inhibition increases with diurnal boundary-layer cooling now
underway. The exception is the right-mover, of a large severe
splitting supercell, now west-southwest of Wichita Falls TX.
This storm lingers in the presence of forcing associated with
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, and perhaps mid/upper
support associated with a weak perturbation migrating around the
periphery of the remnants of Southwestern subtropical ridging.
A general weakening trend may be underway, but it might still be
another hour or two before it dissipates while tending to propagate
toward the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.
Otherwise, a narrow corridor of moderately large CAPE appears to
linger in the presence of very steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates, along a remnant zone of stronger differential surface heating
across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. As an
increasingly deformed, but vigorous short wave trough within the
mid-latitude westerlies continues to dig across the north central
Plains through 03-06Z, increasing forcing for ascent downstream
may begin to interact with this boundary and instability.
Strengthening lower/mid tropospheric warm advection may support
renewed thunderstorm development across southwestern into central
or south central Oklahoma, while additional storms form along a
southward surging cold front across southwestern Kansas and the
Panhandle region into northwestern Oklahoma. Late this evening
into the overnight hours, aided by strong deep-layer shear, it still
appears that increasing convection may consolidate into an organizing
convective system. Although the potential corridor of strongest
convection has been at least somewhat uncertain due to sizable spread
among the various model output, based on current observations and
latest model output, it seems this now may be largely confined to
western through south central Oklahoma. This could include at least
portions of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area.
..Kerr.. 05/08/2020
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman
OK 0452 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS...
AMENDED FOR AN UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
...SUMMARY... Severe gusts, including localized swaths of wind
damage near hurricane force, and damaging hail are expected late
this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern to central
Plains.
...Discussion... Based on visible satellite imagery and
recent/consistent signals in short-term convection-allowing model
guidance (e.g., experimental WoFs), confidence has increased
to include a focused corridor with 30-percent significant hail
probabilities over the area near southwest OK and adjacent parts
of TX.
---The major change this outlook update is to include a focused
corridor of higher coverage, severe-wind potential from parts of
central OK southeastward into south-central OK. Short-term model
guidance (e.g., hrrr time-lagged) shows the development of intense
thunderstorms over northwest OK and a gradual upscale growth to this
convection during the evening into the overnight hours. Additional
warm sector development is possible over central OK ahead of the
developing band of storms forecast to rapidly move to the southeast
across OK overnight. Therefore, have included probability upgrades
for 1) 30-percent significant wind and, 2) 5-percent tornado risk
within the aforementioned focused corridor. Large to giant hail
is possible with the evening discrete supercell activity over the
High Plains before a large to very large hail threat materializes
later this evening with the above-described scenario.---
..Smith.. 05/07/2020
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu May 07 2020/
...TX Panhandle into southwest OK... Morning surface analysis shows
southerly low level winds throughout TX/OK, with dewpoints in the
50s in most areas. A dryline is expected to become established
later today from the eastern TX panhandle southward, with a narrow
of axis of dewpoints in the 60s to the east, and temperatures in the
mid/upper 90s to the west. A weak surface low is also expected to
form near Amarillo this afternoon, helping to enhance convergence
along the dryline and support the risk of isolated thunderstorm
development. Any storm that forms will likely become supercellular
and be capable of very large hail. Damaging winds and a tornado
or two are also possible. Activity will track east-southeastward
into western north TX and southwest OK this evening before slowly
weakening.
...KS/OK/TX this evening... Water vapor loop shows a shortwave
trough digging southeastward across CO and western KS. This feature
should help to initiate thunderstorms along an approaching cold
front this evening across parts of southern KS and northern OK -
perhaps into the northeast TX panhandle. Current indications
are that this activity will not initiate until near/after dark.
Early storms will primarily pose a large hail threat. During the
evening, 12z guidance continues to build consensus that an MCS will
track southeastward across OK, with an increasing risk of damaging
wind gusts along with hail. Did not upgrade to ENH at this time
due to remaining uncertainty of where the corridor of risk will be
concentrated - but this will be re-considered at 20z.
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
rain falls where clouds come sun shines where clouds go clouds just come and go
-- Florian Gutzwiller
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