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LW3DBH > ALERT 12.05.20 02:26z 234 Lines 11625 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 11 05
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Sent: 200512/0212Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:64856 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:64856_LW
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WW 177 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 112340Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Mon
May 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Monday night from 640 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Multiple supercells and clusters will likely spread east
this evening with large hail and severe wind gusts as the primary
threats. A tornado is also possible, particularly along the I-27
corridor in northwest Texas.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles southwest of
Lubbock TX to 25 miles northwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 176...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Grams
WW 176 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 112235Z - 120500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Mon
May 11 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast New Mexico
West Texas
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage this
evening with a few embedded supercells with large hail as the primary
initial threat. Eventual consolidation into an eastward-moving
cluster or two may occur with an increasing threat for severe
wind gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast
of Hobbs NM to 55 miles southeast of Marfa TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27025.
...Grams
WW 0177 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 177
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE ROW TO
55 SSE CVS TO 30 ENE CVS TO 25 NW AMA.
..KERR..05/12/20
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 177
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-107-125-129-153-169-179-189-191-219-
263-279-303-305-345-369-375-381-437-445-501-120240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON
CASTRO COCHRAN CROSBY DICKENS
DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT LAMB
LUBBOCK LYNN MOTLEY PARMER POTTER
RANDALL SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0176 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 176
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MRF TO
40 N MRF TO 30 SW INK TO 20 SSE HOB TO 25 NNE HOB.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0569
..LYONS..05/12/20
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 176
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC015-025-120240-
NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDDY LEA
TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-329-371-
377-383-389-443-461-475-495-120240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BORDEN BREWSTER CRANE
CULBERSON DAWSON ECTOR GAINES
GLASSCOCK HOWARD JEFF DAVIS LOVING MARTIN
MIDLAND PECOS PRESIDIO REAGAN
REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER
MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177... FOR PARTS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0570 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...
Valid 120145Z - 120315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177
continues.
SUMMARY...The evolution of a more organized cluster of storms with
increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts remains possible
across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into western north Texas
through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. Trends will continue to be monitored
for the possibility of an additional watch to the east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 177.
DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in convective development and
intensity has occurred the past few hours, with at least a couple
of storm clusters and discrete supercell development ongoing across
the Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. Some of this has already
produced locally strong surface gusts and severe hail.
Aided by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, a continued gradual consolidation of
convection appears possible into the 03-05Z time frame. It appears
that the centroid of activity may tend to become focused near
or southwest of Childress TX, where strongest 2-hourly surface
pressure falls (near 3 mb) have recently become evident in surface
observations.
Although low-level moisture is seasonably modest, lapse rates are
steep and deep-layer shear, in particular, is becoming quite strong
due to continued strengthening of south/southeasterly low-level
flow (30+ kt around 850 mb) beneath 30-40 kt westerly/northwesterly
mid-level flow. This environment could still support the evolution
of a more organized convective system with increasing potential to
produce strong surface gusts.
..Kerr.. 05/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35770051 35069953 34239913 33159937 32650101 33310363
34170272 35060233 36370209 35770051
MD 0569 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176... FOR SOUTHWEST
TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020
Areas affected...southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...
Valid 120142Z - 120315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe weather will likely continue for a few more hours
with a cluster of strong to severe cells near Fort Stockton. The
increase in nocturnal inhibition across the rest of WW176 will limit
the severe threat primarily to the aforementioned stronger storms.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends from far southwest Texas show a cluster of
storms near Fort Stockton continue to exhibit strong reflectivity
aloft and occasional dual-pol hail signatures. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates these storms are ongoing in an environment characterized
by MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and increasing low-level inhibition.
00z MAF and DRT soundings show support for organized convection
capable of large hail and strong wind gusts across the area with
steep mid-level lapse-rates near 8 C/km. Veering but weak wind
profiles, 25 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear, support a mixture
of supercells and organized clusters with upscale growth likely
as storm interactions increase with other weaker cells developing
to the south. The development of the nocturnal low-level jet will
likely increase the coverage of weaker convection to the south
of the main cluster over the next few hours. This suggests that
the threat for severe weather will likely continue for a few more
hours before nocturnal inhibition and influences from surrounding
convection reduce overall convective intensity.
..Lyons/Grams.. 05/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31340179 30650172 30130183 29860193 29830221 29820256
29940301 30210340 30470362 30590364 30880374 31460356 31750332
31680268 31630217 31550195 31530195 31340179
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759
PM CDT Mon May 11 2020
Valid 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind
gusts remain possible over the southern High Plains this evening.
...Southern High Plains... Water vapor imagery this evening
shows a mid-level shortwave in northeast NM and the western
TX Panhandle which will continue eastward overnight and reach
central Oklahoma/north central Texas by Tuesday morning. Subjective
surface analysis indicates a warm front over northwest Texas arcing
southeastward, and this boundary will slowly advance northeastward
through the overnight hours as lower tropospheric flow veers and
strengthens.
Scattered storms this evening will likely continue to pose a large
hail and damaging wind threat with the more intense multicells and
supercells associated with the following two regimes:
1. The line of storms currently organizing in the western TX
panhandle with support from the shortwave aloft and weak isentropic
ascent near the warm front. This activity should continue to grow
upscale as the low-level jet strengthens this evening.
2. One or more cold pools which develop out of the ongoing storm
activity from the Big Bend into the Trans Pecos.
Overall activity should wane as the boundary layer cools and storms
move east of the better instability later this evening.
..Bentley/Smith.. 05/12/2020
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