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LW3DBH > ALERT 14.05.20 02:14z 246 Lines 12067 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 13 05
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Sent: 200514/0212Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:65072 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:65072_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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WW 181 SEVERE TSTM OK 140120Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Wed
May 13 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday night from 820 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A bowing cluster of thunderstorms over west-central
Oklahoma will track east-northeastward this evening, continue to
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail for the next
few hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest
of Enid OK to 25 miles southeast of Fort Sill OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Hart
WW 180 SEVERE TSTM TX 132025Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 180 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed
May 13 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of west central
and southwest Texas
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with
isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop just east of the
higher terrain in Pecos County, and other storms will likely form
this afternoon farther north along a dryline. The storm environment
will favor supercells across the southern part of the watch area,
and multicell clusters across the northern part of the watch.
Large hail will be most probable with any supercells, while damaging
winds will be the main concern with the storm clusters as they
spread eastward through late evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north northeast
of Big Spring TX to 25 miles south southeast of Dryden TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 27020.
...Thompson
WW 179 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 131945Z - 140300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed
May 13 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma The
eastern Texas Panhandle and the Texas South Plains
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected along a dryline in
west Texas during the next 1-2 hours. Storms Will likely form from
an area of developing cumulus clouds west-northwest of Lubbock and
more isolated storms along the dryline toward the northeast Texas
Panhandle. The storms near Lubbock will tend to be high based and
capable of producing damaging outflow winds and hail as convection
grows into a larger cluster late this afternoon/evening. The storm
environment could support supercells with isolated very large hail
across the eastern Texas Panhandle with the more isolated, initial
storms. A tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if any discrete
storms can persist as far east as the western Oklahoma border.
Otherwise, a cluster of storms will likely spread into western
Oklahoma this evening with an attendant threat for damaging winds
and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northwest
of Clinton OK to 75 miles south southwest of Childress TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion
vector 27020.
...Thompson
WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0181 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW 6R6 TO
45 N 6R6 TO 45 WNW SJT TO 25 NE BGS TO 40 N BGS TO 10 SSW LBB.
..LYONS..05/14/20
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 180
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC033-081-105-151-207-235-253-335-353-413-415-431-435-443-451-
465-140240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BORDEN COKE CROCKETT FISHER
HASKELL IRION JONES MITCHELL
NOLAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY STERLING SUTTON
TERRELL TOM GREEN VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE HOB TO
50 E LBB TO 15 ENE CDS TO 35 W CSM TO 70 WSW AVK.
..BROYLES..05/14/20
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC009-039-043-045-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-153-140240-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BECKHAM CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS
GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA
ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODWARD
TXC023-101-107-125-155-169-197-263-269-275-305-433-445-487- 140240-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAYLOR COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
FOARD GARZA HARDEMAN KENT
KING KNOX LYNN STONEWALL TERRY
WILBARGER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
MD 0579 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179... FOR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0579 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020
Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179...
Valid 140059Z - 140300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 179
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue and move eastward
across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas this evening. Large hail
and wind damage will be possible with the stronger cells embedded
in a line. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to the east
of WW 179.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a developing line segment
from far southwest Oklahoma extending southwestward to near the
Lubbock vicinity. This line is located along a northeast-to-southwest
corridor of enhanced low-level convergence. A thermal axis is
present directly south of the line where temperatures are in the
lower 90s. This has helped the line to intensify over the last
hour. The line will move eastward across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper
60s. The RAP is analyzing moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE
3000 to 3500 J/kg) with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 40 kt. In response,
the line should continue to maintain intensity and have a severe
threat. The instability along with mid-level lapse rates in excess
of 8.0 C/km will be favorable for large hail. A wind damage threat
will also be likely along the more organized parts of the line
segment. As the severe threat moves toward the edge of WW 179,
a new weather watch will likely be needed.
..Broyles.. 05/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33500308 33910283 34610216 35200155 36010129 36550116
36880087 36990054 37040002 36949967 36769936 36639925 36299898
35729877 35039868 34369884 33879917 33109976 32600067 32580083
32540182 32570269 32690302 32940309 33500308
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740
PM CDT Wed May 13 2020
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue
this evening across portions of the southern Plains. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible later tonight from southern
Nebraska into southwestern Iowa.
...01z Update...
Convection that initiated along the southern Plains dryline late
this afternoon has propagated off the boundary and gradually
expanded in areal coverage. Over the last hour or so, a squall
line has formed and this linear MCS should mature over the next
few hours as it continues to spread east. 00z sounding downstream
at OUN exhibits very strong capping and this will likely curtail
further intensification as it approaches the I-35 corridor. Even
so, large hail will be common with embedded supercell structures,
and damaging wind threat may increase across eastern portions of
ww 179/180 as squall line matures.
Farther north across the central Plains, earlier thoughts regarding
elevated convection later tonight remain. Increasing LLJ should
encourage thunderstorms across this region toward midnight. Hail
should be the primary threat with this activity.
..Darrow.. 05/14/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
They spell it "da Vinci" and pronounce it "da Vinchy". Foreigners always
spell better than they pronounce.
-- Mark Twain
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