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LW3DBH > ALERT 15.05.20 02:26z 195 Lines 9495 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 65183_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 14 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IQ5KG<IR1UAW<I0OJJ<LU4ECL<LW3DBH
Sent: 200515/0212Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:65183 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:65183_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 183 SEVERE TSTM IA IL 142315Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 183 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Thu
May 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Northern
Illinois
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 615 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms currently over central Iowa will move into
the watch area, while new storms form across the area this evening.
The strongest cells will pose a risk of hail and damaging winds
for the next several hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest
of Burlington IA to 85 miles east of Moline IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 182...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 182 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 142125Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 182 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM CDT Thu
May 14 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Central Iowa
Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 425 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a line from
southwest Iowa into northeast Kansas, then track eastward across
the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging
wind gusts and large hail during most of the evening hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Topeka
KS to 25 miles north of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Hart
WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 183
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 183
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-063-071-073-091-093-095-099-103-105-123-131-143-155-161-
175-187-195-197-203-150240-
IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU GRUNDY HENDERSON HENRY
KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE
LEE LIVINGSTON MARSHALL MERCER PEORIA
PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK WARREN
WHITESIDE WILL WOODFORD
IAC031-045-057-087-095-101-103-107-111-115-139-163-177-183- 150240-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CEDAR CLINTON DES MOINES HENRY
IOWA JEFFERSON JOHNSON KEOKUK
LEE LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN
WASHINGTON
WW 0182 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE SDA TO
20 S DSM TO 25 W CID.
..BROYLES..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...DMX...TOP...EAX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 182
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC007-039-051-053-117-123-125-135-157-159-179-185-150140-
IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR
LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MONROE
POWESHIEK RINGGOLD WAPELLO WAYNE
KSC003-005-013-031-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-121-127-
131-139-149-161-177-197-209-150140-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN COFFEY
DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH
LYON MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA
OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE
MD 0588 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182... FOR NORTHEAST
KANSAS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0588 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Western and Northern
Missouri...Far Southern Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...
Valid 150122Z - 150315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for several more hours
across northeast Kansas, northern Missouri and far southern Iowa.
The storms will gradually move eastward and should impact the
eastern part of WW 182.
DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing along a pre-frontal surface trough
from southern Iowa southwestward to northeast Kansas. The RAP is
analyzing moderate instabity from near the surface trough eastward
across much of eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri.
Three clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing in
the vicinity of WW 182. The first is in northwest Missouri near the
axis of a 700 mb jet. This area is slightly less unstable but more
strongly sheared. Storm mode has mostly been linear suggesting a
wind damage and hail threat will continue across northwest Missouri.
The second area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
central to northeast Kansas where MLCAPE is higher (MLPCAPE of 2500
to 3500 J/kg). This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells with
large hail. As cells merge and a line organizes over the next few
hours, the wind damage threat is expected to increase. This activity
should move eastward across the remainder of northeast Kansas and
may affect parts of far western Missouri later this evening.
The third area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
northeast Missouri near a maxima in instability (MLCAPE near 2500
J/kg). This area has slightly less deep-layer shear than further to
the north suggesting the storms will remain mostly unorganized. A
wind damage and hail threat may exist with the stronger cores.
..Broyles.. 05/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40879259 40579185 40069205 39169333 37899508 37969612
38449713 38839709 39369611 39969506 40929321 40879259
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751
PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KS TO WESTERN IN...
...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms remain
possible tonight from eastern Kansas into the Ohio Valley.
...01z Update...
Southern influence of mid-level short-wave trough appears to be
encouraging thunderstorm development along a cold front that
stretches from southern IA - northwest MO - central KS. This
upward-evolving frontal convection should continue to mature,
possible organizing into an MCS over the mid-MS Valley before
propagating southeast through the Ozark Plateau late tonight. Have
adjusted severe probabilities to reflect the back edge of this
activity. Otherwise, convection should continue to evolve eastward
into northern/central IL, per earlier thoughts.
Convection has struggled to develop along the dry line over the
southern Plains, except near the international border over Terrell
County TX. This storm appears to be a left-split that could lift
another county or two before weakening.
..Darrow.. 05/15/2020
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Should I do my BOBBIE VINTON medley?
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