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LW3DBH > ALERT 16.05.20 02:25z 363 Lines 18064 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Storm Prediction Center 15 05
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Sent: 200516/0213Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:65296 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:65296_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 188 SEVERE TSTM TX 151955Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Fri
May 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of west through central
Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely
with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large
hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in
diameter possible
SUMMARY...Numerous storms are expected to develop along and ahead
of the dryline across west Texas and grow upscale into a linear
MCS as they move east later this afternoon and evening. Damaging
wind and large hail are likely with the stronger storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130
statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north of Abilene
TX to 40 miles southeast of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...WW 187...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Dial
WW 187 TORNADO MA NH NY PA VT 151925Z - 160200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 187
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of western and central Massachusetts
southern New Hampshire central through eastern New York northeast
Pennsylvania southern Vermont
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events
to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Storms with a few bowing segments and possible supercell
structures are expected to develop through New York and southern
New England this afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind appears
likely with a couple of tornadoes possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Elmira
NY to 30 miles southeast of Concord NH. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 27035.
...Dial
WW 186 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 151835Z - 160300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Fri
May 15 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of extreme western Arkansas
southern Oklahoma northern Texas
* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated
significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and
isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to continue developing along a
southward advancing outflow boundary and cold front across southern
Oklahoma this afternoon, eventually spreading into northern Texas
this evening. Multicell storm modes with damaging wind and large
hail are expected.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
70 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west
southwest of Altus OK to 30 miles north of De Queen AR. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
33030.
...Dial
WW 0188 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW DRT TO
55 N DRT TO 50 SSW SJT TO 40 W SJT TO 30 SE BGS TO 55 W ABI TO 45
SSE CDS.
..BROYLES..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT...LUB...FWD...EWX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 188
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-133-137-143-151-171-207-235-237-
253-265-267-271-299-307-319-323-327-333-353-363-385-399-411-413-
417-429-431-433-435-441-447-451-463-503-507-160140-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANDERA BROWN CALLAHAN COKE
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND
EDWARDS ERATH FISHER GILLESPIE
HASKELL IRION JACK JONES
KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LLANO
MCCULLOCH MASON MAVERICK MENARD MILLS
NOLAN PALO PINTO REAL RUNNELS
SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING
STONEWALL SUTTON TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
TOM GREEN UVALDE YOUNG ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
WW 0187 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE POU TO
15 NNE BOS.
WW 187 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 160200Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
..MOORE..05/16/20
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BGM...BUF...BTV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 187
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
CTC013-015-160200-
CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
TOLLAND WINDHAM
RIC007-160200-
RI . RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PROVIDENCE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON
COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0186 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CSM TO
40 ESE CHK TO 30 NNE DUA TO 35 NE DUA TO 20 NNW PRX TO 20 NE PRX
TO 30 NNE DEQ.
..BROYLES..05/15/20
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SHV...FWD...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 186
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-009-013-019-031-033-049-055-057-065-067-069-075-085-095-
099-137-141-149-160040-
OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BECKHAM BRYAN CARTER
COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GREER
HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA
LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY STEPHENS
TILLMAN WASHITA
TXC009-023-077-097-147-155-181-197-275-277-337-485-487-160040-
TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE
FANNIN FOARD GRAYSON HARDEMAN
KNOX LAMAR MONTAGUE WICHITA
MD 0610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188... FOR TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0610 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Areas affected...Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188...
Valid 160156Z - 160400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across north, central and
southwest Texas late this evening into the overnight period. Large
hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch
issuance will be needed to the east of WW 188.
DISCUSSION...An expansive MCS is present across the southern Plains.
The MCS is now organized into a nearly continuous line and is moving
into the eastern part of WW 188. Ahead of the MCS, strong instabilty
exists from north Texas into the Texas Hill Country and lower Rio
Grand Valley. The RAP is showing MLCAPE values along this corridor
in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range. Although 0-6 km shear on regional
WSR-88D VWPs is generally below 40 kt, mid-level lapse rates are
still very steep across much of the southern Plains. This combined
with the strong instability will be favorable for large hail with
the more intense sections of the line. Wind damage will also be
possible with bowing segments on the leading edge of the line.
..Broyles.. 05/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 27709848 28179724 28869616 29479623 30369664 31249632
32329562 32779554 33179628 33659754 33569859 32629875 31159900
30549949 29640025 28910049 27709959 27709848
MD 0609 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 160118Z - 160345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A wind damage and hail threat will be possible from mid
to late evening across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. The threat
should be too marginal to warrant weather watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Terrain-induced thunderstorm activity is currently in
the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. The line is being supported
by large-scale ascent ahead of a subtle shortwave trough that is
moving eastward through the central High Plains. This line of storms
is located on the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass
with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In
addition, an axis of steep low-level lapse rates is analyzed by
the RAP across the western Texas Panhandle. The may be enough
for a marginal wind damage threat as the line moves eastward into
increasing instability this evening. Although wind damage and hail
could occur with the strongest of cores, the Amarillo WSR-88D VWP
suggests that deep-layer shear is too weak for an organized severe
threat. For this reason, weather watch issuance is not expected
across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this evening.
..Broyles.. 05/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...
LAT...LON 35510246 35300098 35280051 35620006 36600002 36860056
36770259 36540294 36080296 35690290 35510246
MD 0608 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 187... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW YORK...MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Areas affected...portions of southern New
York...Massachusetts...Connecticut...and Rhode Island
Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...
Valid 160109Z - 160215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187 continues.
SUMMARY...Although damaging winds remain possible in the near term,
a gradual weakening trend is expected over the next hour as a line
of storm moves towards the Atlantic coast.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends from KONX and KENX show a gradual weakening
trend in the squall line that is progressing across southern NY,
and into MA and CT, including areas south of WW 187. This trend is
expected to continue as this line of storms moves into an environment
characterized by more maritime influences with temperatures in
the 60s and dewpoints in the 50s along the Atlantic coast and as
diurnal cooling continues to help stabilize the inland boundary
layer. However, recent GOES IR imagery has shown some individual
storms and segments of the line cooling aloft in conjunction with
an uptake in lightning activity, suggesting periodic and transient
intensification, and thus a damaging wind threat, remains possible
in the near term.
..Moore.. 05/16/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41847339 42307233 42757137 42687086 42057053 41367141
41267252 40917377 41157439 41347475 41597466 41717437 41847339
MD 0607 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186... FOR NORTH
TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0607 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Areas affected...North Texas...Southern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...
Valid 152359Z - 160200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for several more hours
across WW 186 from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. Large hail
and wind damage will be the main threats.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1001 mb low in
northwest Texas with backed easterly surface winds across much of
north Texas and southern Oklahoma. An axis of low-level moisture
extends westward from northeast Texas into northwest Texas along the
Red River, where surface dewpoints are in the lower 70s F. This is
contributing to strong instability with the RAP estimating MLCAPE
around 3500 J/kg. In addition, the Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6
km near 45 kt with strong directional shear in the lowest 2 Km AGL.
This wind profile will be favorable for multicell line segments
although isolated supercells will also be possible. As cells
continue to congeal, a mult-segmented line segment with embedded
severe storms may organize and move eastward across north Texas over
the next few hours. The greatest potential would along the outflow
boundary where surface-based instability is present. Wind damage
will be possible along the leading edge of the more organized part
of the line segment. Isolated large hail will also be possible with
the more intense cores.
..Broyles.. 05/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34269979 33649979 33509957 33559737 33519619 33839603
34359637 34719796 34749902 34459960 34269979
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748
PM CDT Fri May 15 2020
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Widespread thunderstorms, some severe, will spread
across much of Texas tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms will
move off the southern New England Coast later this evening. Isolated
strong/severe storms remain possible across the central High Plains.
...01z Update...
Large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across NY into New
England this evening. Organized convection, with damaging wind
gusts, is progressing across southern New England and will soon
reach the Atlantic Coast where buoyancy is very limited, per CHH
sounding. Trailing pre-frontal convection across PA should propagate
east toward northern NJ but this activity may also struggle as it
approaches the Middle Atlantic Coast.
Weak upper low over far west TX should drift east tonight. This
feature appears partly responsible for an expansive corridor of deep
convection that stretches from northeast Mexico - west TX - southern
OK. With a reservoir of high-buoyancy air just downstream of this
convection, it appears likely that a slow eastward expansion through
central into portions of east TX will be noted by sunrise. Hail
and wind remain possible with this activity.
Strongly sheared, but weakly buoyant air mass across the central
Plains is supporting scattered thunderstorms from western NE into
eastern CO. This activity should spread/develop southeast into
northwestern KS later this evening as LLJ strengthens.
..Darrow.. 05/16/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
XLVII:
Two-thirds of the Earth's surface is covered with water. The other
third is covered with auditors from headquarters.
XLVIII:
The more time you spend talking about what you have been doing, the
less time you have to spend doing what you have been talking about.
Eventually, you spend more and more time talking about less and less
until finally you spend all your time talking about nothing.
XLIX:
Regulations grow at the same rate as weeds.
L:
The average regulation has a life span one-fifth as long as a
chimpanzee's and one-tenth as long as a human's -- but four times
as long as the official's who created it.
LI:
By the time of the United States Tricentennial, there will be more
government workers than there are workers.
LII:
People working in the private sector should try to save money.
There remains the possibility that it may someday be valuable again.
-- Norman Augustine
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