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LU9DCE > ALERT 07.02.19 07:05z 222 Lines 12130 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18214_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 07 02
Path: HB9ON<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<GB7CIP<EI2GYB<PE1RRR<LU4ECL<
LU3DVN<LU9DCE
Sent: 190207/0700Z 18214@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM BPQ6.0.18
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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
CASTILLOEDUARDO@ZOHO.COM
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MD 0084 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019
Areas affected...south-central into southeast MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070650Z - 070745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A localized damaging gust threat (50-60 mph) may continue
across south-central into southeast MO during the next hour.
DISCUSSION...KSGF radar imagery shows a north-south squall line
moving quickly east across southern MO as of 1250am CST. Surface
analysis indicates a stationary front draped east across southern
MO through the OH/MS River confluence. Relatively cool surface
conditions reside east of the squall line and range from the mid
40s north to the upper 50s south. Forecast soundings indicate
no surface-based CAPE exists downstream of the squall line --in
agreement with objective analysis data. It appears 62-64 deg F
dewpoints are necessary for surface-based CAPE. Given the elevated
character of the squall line with embedded nonsupercellular cores
previously showing brief/weak mid-level rotation that has since
dissipated, the expectation for the remaining severe risk is for
localized wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) as the maximum hazard.
..Smith/Grams.. 02/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 37469235 37689153 37629082 37299063 37069070 36859103
36719261 37469235
MD 0083 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0083 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019
Areas affected...Southern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070533Z - 070700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts possible across southern MO
over the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...A somewhat well-organized convective line has developed
across far southwest MO over the past hour or so. Storm motion is
currently estimated to be 250 degrees at 63 kt. This fast storm
motion as well as the presence of a stable boundary layer (with
the nearest observation to be bow reporting a 46/46) are strong
indications that the convective line is elevated. Linear storm mode
will likely limit hail production with the primary severe threat
coming from convective downdrafts that may occasionally be able to
penetrate the low-level stable layer to produce a strong gust or two
at the surface. Recent observation (0515Z) at HFJ reported a gust of
36 kt. Limited severe potential will preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 02/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36939417 37199388 37429323 37509205 36799178 36559228
36399387 36939417
MD 0081 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0081 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019
Areas affected...Portions of northern Missouri and southern Iowa
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 070333Z - 070930Z
SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation is expected to develop across
northern Missouri and southern Iowa tonight. Heavy freezing rain
and sleet are likely at times.
DISCUSSION...Warm-air advection and isentropic lifting over a cold
air mass is occurring as a low-level jet strengthens over the
Plains and Mid Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys. An embedded
shortwave trough is helping to initiate some of the convection
currently before the larger-scale forcing spreads eastward with the
upper-level trough moving out over the Plains tonight. This could
result in training/multiple rounds of winter mixed precipitation
for northern portions of Missouri (see MCD 079). CG lightning is
also likely given the presence/potential for mixed-phase clouds
and MUCAPE of 250-1000+ J/kg as lapse rates steepen in response
to cold-air advection aloft. With the convective potential, heavy
freezing rain and sleet showers are likely tonight/overnight. Ice
accumulation will occur across much of the MCD area and precipitation
should continue into the morning.
..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 38559295 38999321 39299338 39699398 39919450 39979494
39979519 40159556 40469567 40839542 41289467 41679385 42029257
42109166 41999126 41819082 41529065 41439066 40709102 40369128
39969148 39629169 39259195 39059205 38849225 38669251 38579277
38559295
MD 0079 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019
Areas affected...Portions of northern Oklahoma...southern/eastern
Kansas...and western Missouri
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 070151Z - 070745Z
SUMMARY...Winter mixed precipitation will develop across portions
of northern Oklahoma, southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri
tonight. Heavy freezing rain/sleet are possible.
DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level trough is moving onto the Plains
this evening and a strengthening low-level jet is increasing
warm-air advection above a cold air mass across Kansas/Oklahoma. A
couple of elevated multi-cellular convective clusters are moving
along the northern edge of the low-level jet/warm-air advection.
Mid-level lapse rates are steepening as cold air aloft spreads
eastward, which will increase coverage of storms/showers in
the next couple of hours across portions of northern Oklahoma,
southern/eastern Kansas, and western Missouri. The warm-nose should
remain in place tonight within the MCD area at 850-700 mb with below
freezing surface temperatures resulting in freezing rain and sleet.
MUCAPE of 250-1000 J/kg and mixed-phase clouds should result in
CG lightning and could produce locally heavy freezing rain/sleet.
Generally, precipitation rates will be 0.05-0.15" per hour with
widespread ice accumulation expected. In areas with stronger surface
winds, ice accretion will be more efficient and sleet accumulation
is also possible within convective bands/showers.
..Nauslar/Edwards.. 02/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36889576 36729640 36559698 36309778 36239828 36179871
36259904 36469929 36779937 37079938 37289936 37759901 38729772
39409672 39959585 40029518 39979472 39739418 39399362 39059332
38739318 38399326 38039369 37979382 37619430 37329469 37129505
37029535 36889576
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153
PM CST Wed Feb 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Some of
these could be accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis... As mid-level subtropical ridging remains strong
across the Gulf Basin into much of the Southeast and adjacent
Atlantic, it appears that a significant short wave trough (now
turning northeast of the southern Rockies into the central Plains)
will maintain a northeastward acceleration during this period.
As it does, models continue to indicate that it will be accompanied
by strong lower/mid tropospheric cyclogenesis, particularly across
the Great Lakes region into western Quebec this afternoon through
12Z Friday.
An influx of low-level moisture off the western Gulf of Mexico
has already contributed to sufficient destabilization to support
a considerable increase in thunderstorm development across the
central and southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley and
Ozark Plateau. This activity appears likely to spread northeastward
and eastward into/through the Ozark Plateau, middle Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys and the lower Great Lakes region, before the inflow of
moisture becomes cut off, and destabilization becomes insufficient
to maintain thunderstorm activity. Before this occurs, though,
a risk for severe thunderstorms is expected to persist today, and
could even increase from late morning through mid to late afternoon
across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
...Middle Mississippi into Lower Ohio Valleys... Low clouds and
rain within the warm sector, and an initially cold/stable low-level
environment to the northeast/east of the northeastward migrating
cyclone, will probably impede destabilization and limit the overall
severe weather risk through this period.
However, guidance remains suggestive of a continuing window of
opportunity for strong/severe thunderstorm development into today,
mainly within the deepening surface trough, east/southeast of the
cyclone center, southward ahead of the eastward advancing surface
front. Despite generally weak lapse rates, it appears that near
surface warming and moistening, coupled with weak mid-level cooling,
may yield at least weak destabilization of the boundary layer.
Aided by difluent and divergent flow ahead of the upper trough,
low-level forcing along/ahead of the cold front may support an
evolving line of low-topped thunderstorms, perhaps including
a few supercells, by midday. In the presence of 50-70+ kt
south/southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, strong deep
layer shear and large clockwise curved low-level hodographs may
contribute to potential for convection capable of producing a couple
of tornadoes.
Otherwise, strongest activity will probably be accompanied by
a risk for potentially damaging convective gusts, which should
become the primary potential severe hazard after the cold front
overtakes the corridor of boundary layer destabilization, while
the convection begins to accelerate off to the east, deeper into
the lower Ohio valley.
..Kerr/Nauslar.. 02/07/2019
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect parts of the
immediate coast of central California on Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front will shift off the East
Coast on Friday, with the trailing portion of this front reaching the
central/southern FL Peninsula late in the period. Limited low-level
moisture ahead of the front and negligible instability will likely
preclude any thunderstorms across these regions.
An upper trough/low will move over northern/central CA through
the period, with large-scale ascent associated with this feature
promoting showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms offshore.
Mid-level temperatures will cool slightly with the approach of
the upper trough, and very weak instability (MUCAPE less than 250
J/kg) may develop along the immediate coast of central CA. Isolated
thunderstorm potential may exist across this region as the low-topped
convection moves onshore.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: <5%
- None Hail: <5% - None
..Gleason.. 02/07/2019
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You two ought to be more careful--your love could drag on for years and years.
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