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LW3DBH > ALERT 17.05.20 02:18z 103 Lines 4858 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 65405_LW3DBH
Read: GUEST
Subj: Storm Prediction Center 16 05
Path: HB9ON<IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DB0RES<ON0AR<VK6HGR<VK2DOT<ZL2BAU<LU4ECL<
LW3DBH
Sent: 200517/0211Z @:LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA #:65405 [MORENO] FBB7.00i $:65405_LW
From: LW3DBH@LW3DBH.1744.BA.ARG.SA
To : ALERT@WW
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| |__\ V V / ___) | |_| | |_) | _ | ARGENTINA
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WW 191 TORNADO AR LA OK TX 162025Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of southwest Arkansas northwest
Louisiana southeast Oklahoma northeast Texas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Low topped supercells may remain capable of producing a few
tornadoes in the Ark-La-Tex region this afternoon into early evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles north of De Queen AR to 45
miles south southwest of El Dorado AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable
for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the
watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and
possible warnings.
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface
and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts
to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm
motion vector 18030.
...Dial
WW 0191 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N IER TO
15 N TXK TO 20 SSE RKR.
WW 191 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170200Z.
..MOORE..05/17/20
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC013-019-027-039-051-057-059-061-073-097-099-103-109-113-139-
170200-
AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN CLARK COLUMBIA DALLAS
GARLAND HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
LAFAYETTE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE
POLK UNION
LAC027-111-170200-
LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
CLAIBORNE UNION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743
PM CDT Sat May 16 2020
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER IOWA AS WELL....
...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two remain possible across the
Ark-La-Tex region this evening. A few strong storms may also develop
from eastern Nebraska into Iowa/Illinois with isolated severe threat.
...Arklatex into central AR... An arcing band of storms continues
to lift north in association with an upper low, within a very moist
air mass with PWAT up to 2". Curved hodographs in the low-levels as
well as 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE may support at least an isolated tornado
threat for a few more hours as storms move north into central AR. The
00Z LZK sounding shows over 150 m2/s2 effective SRH, with a favorably
shaped hodograph for northeast-moving cells. Shear is forecast
to decrease later this evening, as will instability, reducing the
threat. For more information see mesoscale discussion 617.
...Eastern NE into IA... A surface low is expected to deepen
slightly over IA through the period, as a shortwave trough moves
east across the MO River this evening. Wind in the low-levels are
expected to back a bit, with increased speeds at 850 mb. This will
result in an increase in SRH (over 200 m2/s2) across parts of IA, but
the greatest values will be in more stable regions. Lift maximized
near the low may support isolated severe storms, perhaps a supercell
or two this evening. Although instability will be weak at around
500 J/kg MLCAPE, low LCLs, favorable lift and sufficient hodograph
curvature could result in a brief tornado. For more information
see mesoscale discussion 618.
..Jewell.. 05/17/2020
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.
-- Hegel
I know guys can't learn from yesterday ... Hegel must be taking the long view.
-- John Brunner, "Stand on Zanzibar"
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